Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for July 23rd, 2019

July 24th, 2019

We are still in the summer doldrums on the home market. The biggest first run release of the week is Alita: Battle Angel, which is much better than its box office numbers and one of the best releases on this week’s list. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Do the Right Thing and Nichijou: My Ordinary Life: The Complete Series. In the end, I went with Nichijou: My Ordinary Life: The Complete Series. In part because it is an amazing series, but also in part in solidarity with the victims of the Kyoto Animation arson attack. More...

Home Market Releases for June 25th, 2019

June 26th, 2019

It is an absolute nightmare on the home market. There’s no monster hit to talk about, but there are a mountain of new releases that are selling well enough that they could have been featured in the main list and about twice as many that could have been included in the Secondary Blu-ray release. I had to trim some of them to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, the list of Pick of the Week contenders is rather short with just Megalobox: Season One and Frankie Drake Mysteries: Season Two, both of which are worth owning. However, the biggest and best release of the week is Captain Marvel. The screener arrived late, but I finally got the review of the Blu-ray online. That said, I’m going to award Frankie Drake Mysteries with Puck of the Week for best Canadian release. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Captain Marvel

June 25th, 2019

Captain Marvel started with two strikes against it, because it’s an origin story and a prequel. There have been so many origin stories for super heroes released over the past decade plus that audiences have grown tired of them. Furthermore, prequels are difficult to do right, because it’s much harder to surprise audiences. Can this film overcome these obstacles? Or should fans of the M.C.U. just wait till the sequel comes out when this character can really shine? More...

Home Market Releases for June 11th, 2019

June 12th, 2019

It is a very busy week on the home market, but like last week, there’s a lot of what would be filler in a normal week. In fact, there’s only one big release, Captain Marvel, which is also one of the better releases on this week’s list. The only other release that was really in contention for Pick of the Week was The Mustang, but the lack of extras on the Blu-ray hurt its chances. More...

Home Market Releases for May 28th, 2019

May 28th, 2019

We are back to normal on the home market for a summer week. That is to say, there’s almost nothing to talk about. The biggest physical release of the week is Outlander: Season Four. The show’s reviews have slipped a little, but they are still earning amazing reviews. However, it airs on Starz, so most people have never seen it and I don’t think it is a good idea to jump into the show in season four. Greta is the next biggest physical release, but it is not Pick of the Week material. That leaves How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, which came out last week, but the screener arrived late. And of course Captain Marvel, which is coming out on VOD this week. So the choice for Pick of the Week is down to a movie I already awarded the title to and a movie that isn’t out on DVD / Blu-ray this week. It’s a tough call, but in the end, I went with How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. Captain Marvel will have another chance when it comes out on Blu-ray. More...

Theater Averages: Endgame more than Doubles the Competition

May 9th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame remained on top spot on the theater average chart with an average of $31,614. This isn’t that far behind Captain Marvel’s $35,599 average it earned during its opening weekend. The only other member of the $10,000 club was Doubles vies, which is French for Two Vies. ... It’s been a while since I made a joke that bad and I’m not apologizing. That film earned an average of $14,927 in two theaters. More...

International Box Office: Endgame Laps the Competition

May 9th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame continued to dominate the international box office with $282.2 million in 55 markets for totals of $1.57 billion internationally and $2.19 billionh worldwide. Like last week, we’ve been tracking these numbers as they have been released on our page for the movie, so there’s no need to go into much more detail here. I would like to point out that the film earned more in several individual markets than the second place film earned in total. This includes China ($63.83 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $572.64 million); The U.K. ($18.83 million / $91.09 million); and South Korea ($17.93 million / $80.40 million). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Endgame Falls Just Short of The Force Awakens

May 7th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame didn’t do quite as well as expected over the The weekend, but it still managed the second best second weekend with $147.38 million. However, the number one film, The Force Awakens, was playing during the holidays, so Endgame has the record for best non-holiday second weekend. This wasn’t the only record Endgame set over the weekend. On the other hand, The Intruder was the only new release to top $10 million over the weekend, which resulted in a massive 50% box office decline from last weekend down to $199 million. A 50% week-over-week decline would be unusual most of the time, but this is what happens when you have a record-destroying weekend followed by a non-holiday weekend without any significant new releases. More importantly, this is still 17% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, but the gap has dropped significantly over the past two weeks and is now 9.8% or $390 million at $3.61 billion to $4.00 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Endgame and Force Awakens in Real Fight

May 5th, 2019

The weekend isn’t going as well as I had hoped. Avengers: Endgame managed $145.80 million during its second weekend of release, which would leave it just behind The Force Awakens for biggest second weekend of all time. However, this is from Disney and they underestimated last week’s opening by such a large margin that I’m not sure The Force Awakens’ record is safe. On the other hand, there’s no ambiguity about Endgame setting the record for fastest to $600 topping The Force Awakens’s previous record by two full days. The film’s running tally sits at $619.70 million after just ten days of release and I don’t think it is hyperbolic to say it will top $900 million given its start so far. In fact, it could remove The Force Awakens from the top spot on the all-time Domestic title by the time its done, if it turns out Disney was being too conservative with its estimates again this week. More...

Friday Estimates: Endgame Nearly Matches The Force Awakens

May 4th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame dominated the Friday box office with $40.64 million for the day. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $49.33 million during its second Friday of release; however that was Christmas Day, which is one of the best days of the year. Endgame should have better legs over the rest of the weekend and could close the gap by the end of Sunday. I’m not convinced that will happen, but it should still beat our $140 million prediction, so I’m sure Disney will be more than happy with this performance. Furthermore, the film topped $500 million in just its eighth day of release, beating The Force Awakens previous record of 10 days, and will get to $600 million by the end of the weekend, 2 days faster than Awakens reached that milestone. More...

Weekend Prediction: Endgame Takes Aim at The Force Awakens

May 2nd, 2019

Avengers: Endgame looks to break more records this weekend. It is specifically taking aim at The Force Awakens for the biggest second weekend of all time. If it can break this record, then The Force Awakens’s all-time Domestic title is in serious trouble. There are also a trio of wide releases opening this week, but I don’t think they will be a major factor at the box office. Long Shot is clearly the best and I think it will do well for a Romantic Comedy. UglyDolls’ reviews are not pretty, but they shouldn’t hurt this family film too much. Finally there's, The Intruder, which is not only the smallest release, but it is also earning the worst reviews. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the chart, with Overboard earning second place with just under $15 million. More...

Theater Averages: The $10,000 Club Doesn’t End with Endgame

May 2nd, 2019

Avengers: Endgame led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $76,601. This is not only the best theater average of the week, it is the best theater average of the year, doubling the previous best of $35,599 set by Captain Marvel. It is also the best theater average of all time for a wide release, beating The Force Awakens’ old mark of $59,982. Impressively, it wasn’t the only film in the $10,000 club this weekend. The White Crow was in a distant second place with an average of $15,756 in five theaters, but that’s still something to be proud of. More...

International Box Office: Endgame isn’t the Only Game in Town

May 2nd, 2019

Avengers: Endgame absolutely destroyed the international record book earning $866.5 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $1.223 billion. However, as daily readers will know, we’ve been tracking these numbers as they have been released, so there’s no need to go into further detail here. You can see the most recent Daily Tracking here. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Endgame Ends the Record Book, Practically Laps the Competition

April 29th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame was expected to break records with some high-end predictions going as high as $350 million. Its final weekend numbers actually topped the high end expectations, as it opened with $357.12 million. This is almost exactly $100 million more than the previous record, set this weekend last year by Avengers: Infinity War. In fact, it is significantly more than the previous record for an overall weekend, set a few years back by The Force Awakens et al. Needless to say, the overall box office rose considerably from last weekend, up 270% to $402 million. More importantly, this was 29% more than the same weekend last year and this one weekend put a serious dent in 2019’s deficit in the year-over-year comparisons. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018’s pace by more than 11% or $420 million at $3.28 billion to $3.70 billion. I suspect May will also be a very good month in the year-over-year comparison so hopefully that gap will be more reasonable in a month’s time. I don’t think 2019 will catch up to 2018 any time soon, but if it can cut the deficit in raw dollars in half by the end of May, then I will be happy. More...

International Box Office: Endgame Blows Past $1 Billion in Global Debut

April 28th, 2019

A few brave souls thought Avengers: Endgame would be the first film to earn more than $1 billion during its opening weekend. If estimates hold, then it will smash past that number: Disney is projecting a global opening of $1.209 billion. This is the biggest worldwide debut of all time and the film is already the biggest worldwide hit of 2019. Internationally, the film is earning $859.0 million in 54 markets with Russia the only late release. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market is China at $330.5 million. Meanwhile, it is having stunning openings in the U.K. ($53.8 million) and South Korea ($47.4 million). The film will crack $30 million in both Mexico ($33.1 million) and Australia ($30.8 million), and $20 million in Germany ($26.9 million), India ($26.7 million), Brazil ($26.0 million), and France ($24.2 million). In comparison to other M.C.U. hits, the film will take just five days to top what Captain Marvel earned in eight weeks. It is currently in sixth place on the franchise chart and will top Iron Man 3 literally before it is officially Monday here. I’m not sure exactly how long Infinity War will hold out as the top earner in the M.C.U., but I do know we will be tracking its journey there. More...

Weekend Estimates: Endgame Earns $350 million in Domestic Debut

April 28th, 2019

As expected, Avengers: Endgame is dominating the weekend with an estimated $350 million. Unsurprisingly, this sets a new record for opening weekend, topping the previous champion, Avengers: Infinity War, by just close to $100 million. It is also enough to push the film into ninth place on the M.C.U. chart after just three days of release. Its international numbers are looking even better, at a jaw-dropping $859 million. More on that coming shortly… More...

Friday Estimate: Endgame Smashes Record Book

April 27th, 2019

“Hulk Smash!” is a common phrase in the comics and it’s clear Avengers: Endgame is following Hulk’s lead. The film pulled in $156.7 million on Friday. This not only absolutely demolishes the previous record for biggest single day at the domestic box office, it is already more than The Incredible Hulk made in its entire run. It took less than 30 hours from the start of the movie’s previews to rise out of last place in the M.C.U.. This is simply stunning. Furthermore, thanks to the film’s 96%-positive reviews and its unbelievable A plus from CinemaScore, it could have decent legs. Granted, it is the definition of a Fanboy film and it is clear many people rushed out to theaters to see it, but there were also so many sold out shows that even many of the hardcore fans will have to wait until Saturday or Sunday to see the movie. I would put the over / under of the weekend total at nearly $350 million, which is well above our original prediction. This is also more than over a dozen films in the M.C.U. earned domestically and it will be just days away from entering the top five for the franchise. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Endgame Spell the End of the Record Book?

April 25th, 2019

Avengers: Endgame opens this weekend and it’s overstating things only fractionally to say that nothing else at the box office matters. Endgame will earn more during its Thursday night previews than any other film will earn during the full weekend. In fact, it could earn more opening day than any other film released this April will earn in total. It’s only competition is Avengers: Infinity War, which opened this weekend last year. All available evidence suggests Endgame will easily win this race and propel 2019 to a massive win in the year-over-year competition. It won’t be enough to close the gap with 2018 entirely, but it will be an important step in turning 2019’s box office around. More...

International Box Office: Curse is Blessed with a First Place Debut

April 24th, 2019

The Curse of La Llorona earned first place on the international chart with $29 million on 13,155 screens in 71 markets. This is excellent for a film that cost $9 million to make. However, it is also playing in nearly every major market, so it doesn’t have a lot of room to grow. The film had a very strong opening in Mexico with $5.1 million on 2,432 screens, while it was equally strong in Colombia with $2.3 million on 421. It easily earned first place in both markets. On the other hand, the film struggled in France ($2.0 million on 254 screens); Spain ($1.8 million on 330 screens); and Russia ($1.1 million on 1,758). It failed to crack $1 million over the weekend in a number of major markets. It came the closest in South Korea with $905,000 on 620 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.25 million, while it was further behind in Italy ($852,000 on 314 screens) and Brazil ($775,000 on 561). The film opens in the U.K. and Japan in the next couple of weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Curse Tops Chart, but 2019 Suffers Another Loss

April 23rd, 2019

Easter weekend gave box office watchers a few reasons to celebrate. The Curse of La Llorona topped expectations and earned first place with $26.35 million over the weekend. That’s a very strong debut for this time of year. Additionally, both Shazam and Captain Marvel held on amazingly well, which bodes well for their chances against Avengers: Endgame. Overall, the box office rose 1% from last weekend to $108 million. This was 14% lower than the same weekend last year, and it wasn’t Easter weekend last year. On a side note, I’ve seen some stories call this past weekend the worst Easter weekend in over a decade. However, this is misleading, as it was the first time Easter weekend was one weekend before the start of the Summer Blockbuster season. Avengers: Endgame opening on Friday had more to do with the weak box office than any other factor and if Endgame is as big as some box office analysts expect, then by this time next week, we will be talking about how quickly 2019 will turn things around rather than how bad 2019 has been. In the meantime, we’ve hopefully sunk to the low point in the year-over-year comparison, as 2019 is now behind 2018 by a $570 million or 17% margin at $2.84 billion to $3.41 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: La Llorona is the Best of the Weekend

April 21st, 2019

The Curse of La Llorona is leading the way on the weekend chart with a surprising $26.51 million. Granted, this is the weakest opening in the The Conjuring franchise, while its reviews and B minus from CinemaScore suggest short legs. Also, Avengers: Endgame opens in just a handful of days, so it will be pushed into the smallest screens in most multiplexes very soon. That said, the film reportedly only cost $9 million to make and < HREF="https://www.the-numbers.com/market/distributor/Warner-Bros">Warner Bros.’ share of the opening weekend will be close to double that. Internationally, the film is opening even better with an estimated $30 million debut. On the downside, it is playing in 71 markets already, so it has very few major markets left to open in. More...

Friday Estimates: Curses! Box Office is Foiled Again

April 20th, 2019

The Curse of La Llorona got off to a fantastic start on Friday with $11.8 million during its opening day. This is a stronger opening day than Pet Sematary managed, but not as strong as its preview numbers were in comparison to Pet Sematary, so it likely won’t have the same legs. This isn’t surprising, as its reviews are much worse and it is part of a long-running franchise. Both of those factors tend to shorten legs. On the positive side, it earned a B minus from CinemaScore, which is actually really good for a horror film. The Curse of La Llorona would have to have tragically short legs to not earn first place after a start like this. Look for an opening weekend of $26 million. More...

Weekend Prediction: Can Shazam Continue its Streak or will New Releases Break Through?

April 19th, 2019

It’s Easter weekend and, while it is not a true long weekend, there are enough kids out of school to give the box office a boost. On the negative side, Avengers: Endgame comes out next weekend and no one wants to try to compete against that. Because of this, none of the three wide releases this weekend are in the top tier. The one with the biggest potential is The Curse of La Llorona, but it is also earning the worst reviews of the weekend. Breakthrough is the first film made by Fox to come out since the studio’s acquisition by Disney was finalized, so there’s some significance there. Finally there’s Penguins, a film I thought would be a hit, but isn’t garnering much attention. This is not a strong contingent of new releases and Shazam could remain on top. This weekend last year wasn’t Easter weekend, so maybe that will give 2019 the edge. I don’t think 2019 will win in the year-over-year competition, but hopefully it will at least be close. More...

International Box Office: Shazam Flies Higher than Dumbo

April 17th, 2019

Shazam remained in first place on the international chart, despite not opening in any new markets, major or otherwise. This caused it to fall to $35.3 million on 24,633 screens in 79 markets lifting its totals to internationally and $258.4 million worldwide. The film fell 84% in China down to $4.79 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $40.30 million. It held on better in the U.K., down 47% to $2.83 million in 611 theaters for a two-week total of $11.65 million. The film’s last major market is Japan and it opens there this week. If it does well there, then it will have no trouble crossing $400 million worldwide, which is a great run for a film that cost $85 million to make. More...

International Box Office: Shazam Hits Century Mark During Opening Weekend

April 11th, 2019

Shazam stormed to the top of the international chart with an opening weekend haul of $102.3 million on over 40,000 screens in 79 markets. The film’s biggest market was unsurprisingly China, where it earned second place with $30.4 million on 20,939 screens. The film earned first place in a quartet of major markets. This includes Mexico ($5.8 million on 2,669 screens); the U.K. ($5.3 million on 1,533); Russia ($5.2 million on 3,072 screens); and Brazil ($5.1 million on 1,509 screens). This is a great start, especially for a film that “only” cost $85 million to make. However, there’s some bad news here. There’s almost no where left to open, as its only other major market debut is in Japan on the 19th of April. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Shazam Can’t Keep 2019’s Streak Going

April 9th, 2019

Shazam topped expectations over the weekend, albeit by a small margin. However, it was the only new release to do this and the overall box office wasn’t particularly strong as a result. It did rise 6.2% from last weekend reaching $146 million. However, it wasn’t able to keep 2019’s winning streak alive in the year-over-year comparison, as this was 11% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2019 and now has an advantage of $500 million at $3.03 billion to $2.53 billion. If you are looking for good news, then the percent difference actually closed by a fraction of one percent. To call that good news is stretching. More...

Weekend Estimates: Shazam Flies to First Place with over $50 million

April 7th, 2019

Shazam is easily topping the weekend box office chart with an estimated $53.45 million for a total of $56.78 million, including its previous special engagement. This is marginally better than our prediction, but not as strong as I thought it would be after its surprising previews. The film should have strong legs with its amazing reviews, its A from CinemaScore, and its family-friendly target audience. On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame is on its way, and that film could practically end Shazam’s run at the box office. Internationally, Shazam is opening with an estimated $102 million in 79 markets. This includes $30.9 million in China, as well as $6.2 million in Mexico. On the other hand, it only managed $5.3 million in the U.K., which is far less impressive than its debut here. More...

Friday Estimates: Shazam’s Shockingly Strong Start

April 6th, 2019

Shazam was able to take full advantage of its impressive previews, and its $20.5 million Friday debut should be enough to carry it above our initial prediction. Its reviews remain above 90% positive and it earned an A from CinemaScore. Furthermore, its a hit with families, so that should also help its legs over the rest of the weekend and beyond. As for the film’s international debut, it is almost as impressive, as the film earned $29.2 million on Friday for a three-day total of $44.0 million in 79 markets. It is not doing as well as it is here, at least relative to the sizes of the markets, but this is still a fantastic start for a film that cost $85 million to make. If there isn’t already a sequel in the works, there will be one shortly. More...

Weekend Prediction: Shazam Should have a Super Start

April 4th, 2019

Shazam is the biggest release of the weekend and will almost certainly be the second biggest hit of the month. It also has some of the best reviews of the year so far. Pet Sematary should be in a solid second place, both in terms of box office dollars and reviews. Finally there’s The Best of Enemies, which is not only the smallest release on this week’s list, but it is also earning the weakest reviews. However, the biggest box office hit of the weekend will very likely be Avengers: Endgame, as tickets went on sale during the week and I suspect advanced ticket sales for that film will top everything coming out this week. (Early tracking for that film is nearing $300 million just for its opening weekend.) This weekend last year, A Quiet Place opened with just over $50 million, a little more than the next two films combined earned. Fortunately for 2019, there was a huge drop-off from the top three to the rest of the releases, so if we have better depth this year, then 2019 could continue its winning ways. More...

International Box Office: Dumbo’s International Flight

April 3rd, 2019

Dumbo opened in first place with $71.0 million in 53 markets during its opening weekend on the international chart. This is about as good as its debut here. The film’s biggest market was China, but it only made $10.75 million during its opening weekend there. It did relatively better in the U.K. and in Mexico. The film earned first place in both markets with $7.92 million in 666 theaters and $7.71 million respectively. There are no more major markets for the film to open in, so it will have to rely on long legs to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dumbo Marches to the Top

April 2nd, 2019

Dumbo wasn’t able to match expectations, but it still topped the chart over the weekend with $45.99 million. This isn’t enough for this weekend to match last weekend, as it fell 7.3% to $137 million. This is better than the same weekend last year by a tiny 0.6%, but anything that keeps 2019’s winning streak alive is good news in my book. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by practically the same margin as it was last weekend. In fact, the margin in raw dollars rose to $470 million, while the percent gap dipped below 17% at $2.34 billion to $2.81 billion. Hopefully things will improve in April. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dumbo Tops Chart with $45 million

March 31st, 2019

Dumbo will open in first place with over the weekend with an estimated $45.0 million. This is lower than expected and not a strong opening for a film that reportedly cost $170 million to make. It did marginally better internationally, earning $71.0 million, but it is also playing in all major markets, so it has almost nowhere to expand at this point. Going forward, the film should have decent legs, in part because it is a family film. Also, while its reviews are not going to be a major asset, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth is going to be better than its critical reception. However, unless it has really long legs, it is going to be a real challenge to pay for that production budget any time soon. Part of the reason I think this film is struggling is “Franchise Fatigue”. Granted, I’m not sure I would call Disney’s Live Action Remakes a real franchise, not unless they start doing some crossovers to unite the universe. (Don’t do that. Please don’t do that.) However, I do think it is susceptible to the same fatigue and this is a real problem for Disney, because they have two more major releases for this year, plus about a dozen further releases in various stages of development. More...

Friday Estimates: Dumbo Flies, But Doesn’t Reach Blockbuster Heights

March 30th, 2019

Dumbo opened with $15.32 million on Friday. This is weaker than expected, but hardly a bad start. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be decent. I don’t think it will reach $50 million over the weekend, so it will miss even low end expectations. That said, a $46 million opening is more than enough to get it to $100 million domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, it will break even sometime during its home market run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dumbo Soar Like the Original Did?

March 29th, 2019

Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Nears $1 Billion Mark

March 28th, 2019

Captain Marvel completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart for the third weekend in a row. It managed $52.1 million in 54 markets over the weekend for totals of $588.8 million internationally and $909.5 million worldwide. The film will have no trouble becoming the seventh installment in the MCU to reach $1 billion worldwide, but it likely won’t rise any higher on the franchise chart. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Us vs. Them Wasn’t Even Close

March 26th, 2019

Us topped the weekend chart and expectations with $71.12 million during its debut. This was more than double what Captain Marvel earned during this weekend and it helped the overall box office grow 6.8% from last weekend to $148 million. More importantly, this is 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, 2019 is still way behind 2018, but it is chipping away at the deficit and is now behind by 17% or $450 million at $2.15 billion to $2.60 billion. Furthermore, 2019 is no longer an historically bad year at the box office. It used to be the worst year at box office in terms of dollars in over a decade. Now it’s the worst year since 2013 and if April is as good as March was, it could be in the top five best years in box office dollars by the beginning of May. More...

Weekend Estimates: Us Appeals to a lot of us with $70 Million Opening

March 24th, 2019

Us made the most of its opening weekend with an estimated debut of $70.25 million, which is much higher than even the high end of expectations. If this opening holds, it would be the tenth-biggest March opening, but that’s a big if. It’s just behind 300 and just ahead of The Lorax, so I expect it to change a spot when Monday’s final numbers are released. The film should have reasonable legs going forward, as its reviews are a major asset, while it earned a B from CinemaScore, which is a good result for a horror film. Internationally, the film is opening ahead of Get Out, but far behind its domestic debut with an estimated $16.7 million in 47 markets. This includes the U.K., where it earned $3.7 million during its opening weekend. However, it only cracked $1 million in three other markets: France ($2 million); Germany ($1.4 million); and Spain ($1.2 million). More...

Friday Estimates: Us Ends Captain Marvel’s Run on Top with $29 million

March 23rd, 2019

Us topped expectations, and even beat Friday’s revisions, with an opening day of $29.06 million on Friday. Universal is projecting an opening weekend of $67 million after this result; however, studios tend to lowball these projections, so there’s a good chance it’ll do even better. That said, it would be wise to treat the movie like a horror sequel when it comes to predicting its legs. Granted, its reviews are more than 90% positive, and it earned a B from CinemaScore. That might seem low, but it is actually quite strong for a horror film. More...

Weekend Predictions: Us will be Lonely at the Top

March 21st, 2019

Us is the only wide release of the week and it should easily earn top spot on the box office chart. It won’t dominate the box office chart, as Captain Marvel should still be a powerful draw this weekend. Unfortunately, there will be a huge gap between those two films and the rest of the box office, as no other movie is expected to crack $10 million at the box office. Fortunately, this weekend last year wasn’t particularly strong. Granted, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend, but the best, Pacific Rim: Uprising, only managed $28.12 million. There’s a chance the top two films this year will earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2019 only its third win of the year so far. It would also be its third win in a row. More...

Theater Averages: Real Horse Race on Top of the Chart

March 21st, 2019

The Mustang topped the theater average chart with an average of $17,914 in four theaters. Last week’s number one film, Captain Marvel, slipped to second with a still impressive average of $15,775. The final film in the $10,000 club was The Aftermath with an average of $11,284 in five theaters. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Hits $750 million Worldwide in Two Weeks

March 20th, 2019

Captain Marvel continued to dominated the competition earning first place on the international chart with $119.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $494.0 million internationally and $758.9 million worldwide. This is already ahead of 10 previous installments in the MCU. The film opened in its last market, Japan, earning first place with $5.6 million. It also earned $23.83 million in China for a two-week total of $131.84 million. This is down by 72% from its opening weekend, which is a sharp decline, even for China, but not a disaster. The film held on better in the rest of the international markets; in fact, on average, it held on better than it did here. This puts $1 billion worldwide within reach, likely by next week, and it might even reach the top five for the MCU. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Continues to Fly High, Most New Releases Open Strong

March 17th, 2019

Captain Marvel will remain in top spot on the weekend chart with an estimated $69.32 million, giving it a two-week total of $266.21 million. This is higher than predicted and a 55% decline bodes well for its future. It is already ahead of the lifetime domestic totals of eight previous installments in the MCU and it will quickly rise into the top ten. Internationally, the film added $119.7 million to its running tally, which now sits at $494.0 million, while its worldwide total rose to $760.2 million. Yesterday, I said the film could be in the top ten for the MCU. If these estimates hold, it will miss that mark by about $10 million. In fact, given its holds this weekend, it has a pathway to enter the top five. The film’s only, and last, new international opening was Japan. There the film’s estimated weekend opening was $5.6 million, which was the highest opening for a standalone film in the MCU. Meanwhile, outside of China, the film held on even better than it did domestically. China tends to be a very front-loaded market, but the film held on well enough there to get to $132.0 million after just two weeks, making it the fourth highest grossing film in the MCU already. It is even better in Indonesia where its two week total of $16.1 million is the fourth highest total of all-time. We will have more details on the international numbers later in the week. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Hits $200 million Domestically and $600 million Worldwide

March 16th, 2019

Captain Marvel held on a little better than expected to earn $19.05 million on Friday, which pushes it past the $200 million mark in just 8 days. This is 69% lower than its opening Friday, but is still a fantastic start to its sophomore weekend. In fact, it should top our prediction with $68 million over the full weekend for a two week total of nearly $265 million. Disney hasn’t released Friday’s international numbers, but it is widely expected to top $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. The film has already surpassed five previous installments in the MCU on the worldwide chart and did so in just eight days. By the end of the weekend, it could be in the top ten for the franchise. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel Give the New Releases Room to Breathe?

March 15th, 2019

Captain Marvel will undoubetedly dominate the box office again this weekend with some thinking it will avoid a 50% drop-off. I think that is overly optimistic, but there are some good signs. This includes a lack of top-notch new releases. Wonder Park is the biggest new release, at least in terms of theater count, but it also has the worst reviews of the three wide releases. Five Feet Apart has better reviews, but they can best be described as mixed. Meanwhile, Captive State still has barely any reviews and its buzz is so quiet that it might not top the Mendoza Line. Finally, some sources have Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase opening wide, but that isn’t happening. That’s too bad, because if it were opening wide, it would have the best reviews of the weekend. This weekend last year, Black Panther completed its month at the top of the chart, while Tomb Raider was the best new releases. Those two films earned almost exactly $50 million combined, which Captain Marvel will top by itself, leading 2019 to the victory in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Captain Marvel has a Glorious Opening

March 14th, 2019

Captain Marvel led the way on the Theater Average Chart, but it didn’t dominate like it did on the overall weekend chart. It did earn the best average of the year so far at $35,599. The second place film, Gloria Bell, had the third best theater average of the year so far with an average of $29,044 in five theaters. Finally, Babylon opened with $21,214 in its lone theater, which is enough for the seventh place for the year. It was a good weekend at the box office. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Takes Command of the Box Office

March 14th, 2019

Captain Marvel dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic chart earning $302.0 million in 53 markets during its opening weekend for a worldwide debut of $455.3 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it earned $86.57 million over the weekend for a total opening of $88.86 million in the market. The film’s second best market was South Korea, where it earned $18.11 million in 2,098 screens for a total opening of $23.98 million. The film managed $16.59 million on 655 theaters in the U.K. and $13.3 million in Brazil. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.71 million); Indonesia ($10.8 million); and Russia ($10.71 million). The only market the film didn’t open in is Japan, but it opens there this weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Captain Marvel Cracks $150 million During Debut

March 12th, 2019

That burst of hot air you feel is box office analysts and movie executives breathing a sigh of relief as 2019 finally has its first win in the year-over-year comparison. Captain Marvel beat expectations earning $153.43 million over the weekend. This is more than the entire box office earned last weekend, helping the box office grow 85% week-over-week to $209 million. The year-over-year growth wasn’t as explosive, but this was still 51% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, $480 million or 22% to be more precise at $1.75 billion to $2.23 billion. However, this gap is about 10% smaller than it was this time last week, so while 2019 has a long, long way to go to catch up to 2018, it at least looks like it is possible instead of just wishful thinking. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Starts Higher. Further. Faster.

March 10th, 2019

Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Sets 2019 Weekend Record in One Day

March 9th, 2019

It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up. More...

Thursday Night Previews: $20.7 million Debut for Captain Marvel

March 8th, 2019

Captain Marvel earned $20.7 million during its Thursday previews, which is easily the best of the year so far. This is nearly double Wonder Woman’s start and enough for fifth best in the MCU. It isn’t too far back from the $25.2 million Black Panther managed last year, although previews for this film started at 6 pm rather than 7 pm. I’m a little concerned about the film’s legs. Its reviews are great for a potential blockbuster, but below those earned by Black Panther, Wonder Woman, etc. Additionally, I think this film has a stronger Fangirl Effect in play and that will shorten its legs. On the positive side, Spring Break is starting for a significant number of students, so that should help its legs somewhat. That said, it would have to have really short legs for the film to not top our $140 million prediction. We will have a better idea where it’s going tomorrow when the Friday Estimates come in. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel have a Marvelous Start?

March 7th, 2019

This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Don’t Dominate, as Madea Makes the Most of its Final Debut

March 4th, 2019

2019 has hit its low point, I hope. While Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened faster than anticipated, Greta couldn’t pull its weight and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World slipped faster than expected. The overall box office fell 9.4% from last weekend to $113 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, this is actually better than average for the year so far, as 2019 is now 26% or $540 million behind 2018’s pace at $1.51 billion to $2.04 billion. Fortunately, Captain Marvel should help things turn around when the film debuts in a few days. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note

March 3rd, 2019

According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then. More...

2019 Preview: March

March 1st, 2019

2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point. More...

Captain Marvel Trailer

September 18th, 2018

Super hero adventure starring Brie Larson opens March 8, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...