Weekend Predictions: Us will be Lonely at the Top
March 21, 2019
Us is the only wide release of the week and it should easily earn top spot on the box office chart. It won’t dominate the box office chart, as Captain Marvel should still be a powerful draw this weekend. Unfortunately, there will be a huge gap between those two films and the rest of the box office, as no other movie is expected to crack $10 million at the box office. Fortunately, this weekend last year wasn’t particularly strong. Granted, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend, but the best, Pacific Rim: Uprising, only managed $28.12 million. There’s a chance the top two films this year will earn more than the top five did last year, giving 2019 only its third win of the year so far. It would also be its third win in a row.
Us is only the second film directed by Jordan Peele. His first film, Get Out, didn’t exactly come out of nowhere. It had good pre-release buzz and was widely expected to be a hit. However, it beat all expectations and was a smash hit. Us isn’t going to have the same surprise factor, but its reviews are amazing and many critics say it demands repeat viewing. Because of this, it could have good legs, especially for a horror film. It should also get off to a fast start. Tracking and buzz suggests it will top $50 million during its opening weekend and I’m going with a prediction of $54 million. I would be disappointed if it didn’t reach $50 million, while I would only be a little surprised if it cracked $60 million.
Captain Marvel will be next, likely with close to $34 million. The film already has over $280 million domestically, so even if it misses expectations by a significant margin, it will still blow past $300 million, becoming the 13th installment in the MCU to get to that milestone. Additionally, it wouldn’t have to beat expectations by a lot to be on pace to cross $400 million domestically.
Wonder Park should hold up the best out of last week’s new releases. It is a family film and there’s no direct competition. However, its reviews will scare away some families and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is very weak for a family film. Because of that, there’s a chance it will fall more than 50%, but I think it will avoid that earning just over $9 million over the weekend, which would be a decline of barely more than 40%.
Five Feet Apart won’t hold on as well, but it should still top its $7 million opening during its second weekend of release with just over $7 million. It is on pace to hit $25 million, either late Sunday or early Monday.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World will round out the top fice with about $6 million. The film will have no trouble getting to $150 million domestically, but it will have to wait till next week to get there.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, Wonder Park, Us, Five Feet Apart, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Jordan Peele