Weekend Prediction: Will Endgame Spell the End of the Record Book?
April 25, 2019
Avengers: Endgame opens this weekend and it’s overstating things only fractionally to say that nothing else at the box office matters. Endgame will earn more during its Thursday night previews than any other film will earn during the full weekend. In fact, it could earn more opening day than any other film released this April will earn in total. It’s only competition is Avengers: Infinity War, which opened this weekend last year. All available evidence suggests Endgame will easily win this race and propel 2019 to a massive win in the year-over-year competition. It won’t be enough to close the gap with 2018 entirely, but it will be an important step in turning 2019’s box office around.
Avengers: Endgame is the 22nd installment in the M.C.U. and it is widely expected to be the biggest hit in the franchise, possibly the biggest hit of all time. There’s talk of a $1 billion global opening weekend and its debut internationally certainly makes that more likely. Additionally, the film’s legs could be long. Its reviews are bouncing between 96% and 97% positive. Not only that, but the average review score is over 8.1 out of 10, which would be good for Oscar-bait films. However, I think the Fanboy Effect could be powerful here, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the film is very front-loaded. On the high end, the film could manage more than $300 million during its opening weekend. Even the low-end expectations have it earning $260 million over the next three days. To emphasize the point, even low-end expectations have the film breaking the all-time domestic box office records. I think it will come close to the $300 million mark, but it won’t quite get there with $290 million. If it does top $300 million by any significant margin, then all-time cumulative records could fall.
The Curse of La Llorona has about a 50% chance of cracking $10 million over the weekend. However, even if it just fails to get there, it will still likely earn more than it cost to make during its sophomore stint. There’s no way Warner Bros. won’t be happy with that result. I’m going with just over $10 million.
Shazam will be next with just over $9 million. Avengers: Endgame is direct competition for this film and that will hurt, but there’s also a chance people will head to the theater to see Endgame, find out all of the showings are sold out, and check out this film instead.
Likewise, Captain Marvel could benefit from sold out shows for Avengers: Endgame. Additionally, people could just want to watch this movie and Endgame back-to-back. Because of this, I think it will remain in fourth place with just over $6 million.
This leaves Breakthrough in fifth place with just under $6 million. It has the least crossover audience with Avengers: Endgame, but I can also see its target audience just staying home rather than dealing with the crowds.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shazam!, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, The Curse of La Llorona, Breakthrough, Marvel Cinematic Universe