For one bustling Manhattan apartment building, the real day starts after the folks on two legs leave for work and school. That’s when the pets of every stripe, fur and feather begin their own nine-to-five routine: hanging out with each other, trading humiliating stories about their owners, auditioning adorable looks to get better snacks
and watching Animal Planet like it is reality TV.
Metrics
Opening Weekend:
$104,352,905 (28.3% of total gross)
Legs:
3.54 (domestic box office/biggest weekend)
Domestic Share:
41.7% (domestic box office/worldwide)
Production Budget:
$75,000,000 (worldwide box office is 11.8 times production budget)
Theater counts:
4,370 opening theaters/4,381 max. theaters, 8.1 weeks average run per theater
Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.
For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.
We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.
Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.
Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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Normally, we don’t have a Box Office Prediction Contest for the final week of the year, because there are no new releases that week. However, due to a shipping error, we got two extra copies of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, so we should really give those away A.S.A.P. The target film will be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which will be in its third weekend of release, so there will be plenty of information to judge your prediction on. In order to win, one must simply predict the third weekend box office number for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or could win a lump of coal.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or they might be the recipient of the lump of coal.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack or they might be stuck with the lump of coal.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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The winners of our Secret Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Incarnate opening weekend were...
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The Secret Life of Pets is one of the biggest hits of the year and one of the biggest original animated films of all time. That said, strong box office numbers doesn’t mean high quality. Minions earned nearly $300 million more at the box office, but it is strictly for kids. Will The Secret Life of Pets have what it takes to entertain adults as well? Or is it another movie that only kids will enjoy?
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Next week is the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is one of two weekends that are historically the worst weekends of the year. (The other is the weekend after Labor Day.) Often times, there are no wide releases to talk about this week and that appears to be the case this year, as Incarnate is reportedly only opening in 1,500 theaters. It has not been a good year for releases like this, so I suspect the winning prediction will be on the low side. However, it is the only film with a shot at the top ten, so it is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Incarnate.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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This is the Tuesday before Black Friday / Cyber Monday. It is the last chance for a home market release to come out before one of the most important shopping weekends of the year. However, it also means the new releases coming out have to compete with massive sales and they will tend to get lost in the crowd. Overall, this is a negative for the new releases, which explains why there are not many big titles. The biggest release of the week is Kubo and the Two Strings, which is also one of the best. If you don’t have any of the Laika films, then the Box Set is easily worth picking up. However, I’m giving the Pick of the Week title to Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXXVII, because I’m a huge fanboy.
Doctor Strange started its international run in first place with $86.0 million in 33 markets. This is 49% better than Ant-Man’s debuts in these markets. If the film does as well here, it would earn $85 million this coming weekend. The film’s biggest international market was South Korea, where it debuted with $12.95 million on 1,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $18.05 million. It dominated the weekend box office there. It earned an easy first place in the U.K. with $11.29 million in 602 theaters. The film also opened in first place in France ($5.7 million); Australia ($4.90 million); Germany ($4.8 million); and Mexico ($4.67 million). If the film does as well during the rest of its international run, it will earn just over $500 million internationally. However, since its reviews are better than Ant-Man’s reviews were, it could have even better legs. We will know more this time next week.
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The winners of our Burn it Down contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Inferno's opening weekend were...
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Bridget Jones’s Baby remained in first place with $22.1 million on 5,092 screens in 47 markets for totals of $67.42 million internationally and $84.01 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $100 million internationally and perhaps $150 million worldwide. That's enough to pay for its $35 million production budget and perhaps all of its advertising budget as well. The film’s best new opening of the week was Italy, where it managed second place with $1.9 million on 421 screens. Its biggest market overall was the U.K. where it remained in first place with $8.39 million in 648 theaters for a two-week total of $27.59 million. It is now the biggest September release of all time in that market, topping Calendar Girls’ 13-year old record.
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There were two films that could lay claim to top spot on the international chart. Star Trek Beyond has the better claim earning $16.6 million over the weekend in 40 markets for totals of $161.5 million internationally and $318.1 million worldwide. Its biggest debut came from Mexico, where it pulled in $1.29 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $1.43 million. This was enough for first place. The film also remained in first place in China with $11.41 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $53.66 million.
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Star Trek Beyond climbed into first place for the first time in its run with $37.0 million in 40 markets for totals of $131.1 million internationally and $285.4 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with a total opening of $30.92 million, including previews. It was not as strong in Brazil, where it earned $1.6 million on 479 screens. The film is doing well enough that it should break even, eventually, but it is not a truly monster hit.
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Jason Bourne returned to first place with $56.2 million on 10,247 screens in 62 markets for totals of $197.73 million internationally and $347.01 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $23.96 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $49.13 million. The entire six day opening is included in the weekend number. Its total in China is already better than the lifetime totals for any other film in the franchise. The film wasn’t quite as potent in Mexico, but it still did well earning first place with $1.53 million over the weekend, which is the best opening in the franchise.
The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run.
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As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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Jason Bourne opened in first place on the international chart with $50.74 million in 5,006 theaters in 48 markets. There were two markets that had a claim for biggest opening for the film: South Korea and the U.K. The film earned third place in South Korea with $8.02 million on 826 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.39 million. Meanwhile in the U.K., it earned second pace with $10.09 million in 561 theaters. The film earned first place in Australia with $5.85 million on 554 screens. Compared to the biggest hit in the franchise, The Bourne Ultimatum, these results were mixed. On the one hand, Ultimatum finished with less than $15 million in South Korea during its total run there, so an opening of over $11 million is amazing. On the other hand, Ultimatum opened with nearly $13 million in the U.K., which is close to 30% more than Jason Bourne’s opening. It will take a few more openings, plus a look at the film’s legs, to tell where it has finished.
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There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end.
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Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less.
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The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond led the way on the Friday box office chart, earning $22.5 million. This is in line with the average among analysts, but lower than my prediction. I did warn you about irrational exuberance. Given the film’s reviews and its A CinemaScore, it should have a relatively good internal multiplier. Look for an opening weekend of close to $57 million, which is significantly better than Ghostbusters’ opening with last week and not that much worse than what X-Men: Apocalypse opened with in May. I assume Paramount is happy with this result, but the film will need good legs and a strong international run to justify another sequel.
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Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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Café Society earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $71,858 in five theaters over the weekend. This is not only the best of the weekend, it is the best of the year so far, topping the previous champ, Captain America: Civil War, which had an average of $42,390 during its opening weekend. Second place went to Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party with an average of $24,938; however, while this is a great result for a documentary, digging just a little into the film’s numbers reveals major weaknesses. The film fell 50% from Friday to Saturday. That’s devastating. We will see if this is an anomaly or a portent when we get this coming weekend’s results. Ghostbusters and The Secret Life of Pets were neck-and-neck with averages of $11,612 and $11,604 respectively.
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After a huge amount of speculation on how it would perform at the box office, Ghostbusters is coming in right in the middle of (a very wide range of) expectations. Sony is projecting a $46 million debut for the supernatural comedy, which is far from the disaster many had feared, but some way short of the top tier. It’s also not enough for first place, even though The Secret Life of Pets will be down 52% in its second weekend.
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Ghostbusters topped the box office chart on Friday with $17.2 million. This is the best opening day for the director, Paul Feig, topping his previous champ, The Heat by 25%. If this film has the same internal multiplier as The Heat, then it will earn $49 million over the weekend. This seems a little high, but not out of the question. Ghostbusters’ reviews are better than The Heat’s reviews were, although both films earned B+ from CinemaScore surveys. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is a remake, so that tends to make the movie more front-loaded. Look for an opening weekend of $45 million. This is right on the edge between financial success and failure. The film will need help internationally in order to break even, but it is way too soon to know if that will happen.
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This weekend is rather sparse when it comes to wide releases. Ghostbusters opens this weekend and its buzz and reviews are better than expected and it could be a huge hit. On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million last weekend and unless it falls more than 50% this weekend, it will remain in first place. That doesn’t feel likely at this point. On the other hand, The Infiltrator opened on Wednesday, but in less than 2,000 theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive range, so it likely won’t be a major factor over the weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man opened in first place, pushing Minions into second place. Meanwhile, Trainwreck was a solid midlevel hit. I just don’t see 2016 being able to top that depth.
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As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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The Secret Life of Pets is storming to a massive opening weekend at the box office, with Universal projecting a $103.2 million debut for the Illumination Entertainment animated film. That’s just shy of the $115.7 million made by Minions this weekend last year, and the best opening ever by a non-sequel or spin-off animated film. This performance is particularly significant for Illumination, because it’s their first blockbuster from outside the Despicable Me universe.
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The Secret Life of Pets had an amazing Friday, earning $38.33 million. This is nowhere near Finding Dory’s $54.7 million opening day, but it’s still very impressive. Unfortunately, for The Secret Life of Pets, its internal multiple likely won’t be as large. Its reviews have settled at 76%, while it earned an A- from CinemaScore and both of these results are lower than Finding Dory earned. Then again, an A- CinemaScore is still a good result, especially since there have been only three films to earn an A from audiences so far this year. (Finding Dory is one of them, Captain America: Civil War and Me Before You were the other two.) I’m increasing our prediction from $72 million to $88 million, which does mean $300 million domestically is now a reasonable final target.
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The Secret Life of Pets earned $5.3 million during its previews last night. This is not as much as the $6.24 million Minions made last year. It is higher than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned. (Despicable Me opened before previews were standard and only pulled in $590,000.) Its reviews have slipped to 76% positive, but that’s still good enough to suggest good legs. $80 million is more likely now than it was yesterday, but direct competition could prevent that from happening.
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It should be a good weekend at the box office, at least for The Secret Life of Pets. The film is earning great reviews and should become the biggest hit of the month. There is one downside: the competition. There are a lot of options for families among the films currently in theaters, plus another movie from a long-running franchise opening soon. Also opening this week is Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, which is an R-rated comedy hoping to survive in the counter-programming role. It could become a midlevel hit, or it could fail to open in the top five. This weekend last year, Minions opened with $115.72 million. The Secret Life of Pets is not going to top that. 2016 has better depth, but likely not by enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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The Secret Life of Pets will have no trouble beating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates at the box office next weekend. It will earn more during its opening weekend than Mike and Dave will earn in total. Because of this, it is the obvious choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Secret Life of Pets.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Joseph and Mary on DVD, as well as one other previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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Independence Day: Resurgence started its international run in first place with $102.1 million in 57 markets. That's the good news. That bad news is that its biggest market was China, where it only managed second place with $36.09 million, including previews. In most of the rest of the world, the film did no better than it did here, relative to the size of the market. South Korea helped it out with a first place, $5.45 million opening on 926 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.49 million. It opened in second place in the U.K. with $6.91 million in 610 theaters, which is no better than its opening here. The film cost a lot to make, so it needs to do better than this to be seen as a financial hit.
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For one bustling Manhattan apartment building, the real day starts after the folks on two legs leave for work and school. That’s when the pets of every stripe, fur and feather begin their own nine-to-five routine: hanging out with each other, trading humiliating stories about their owners, auditioning adorable looks to get better snacks
and watching Animal Planet like it is reality TV.
Metrics
Opening Weekend:
$104,352,905 (28.3% of total gross)
Legs:
3.54 (domestic box office/biggest weekend)
Domestic Share:
41.7% (domestic box office/worldwide)
Production Budget:
$75,000,000 (worldwide box office is 11.8 times production budget)
Theater counts:
4,370 opening theaters/4,381 max. theaters, 8.1 weeks average run per theater
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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Normally, we don’t have a Box Office Prediction Contest for the final week of the year, because there are no new releases that week. However, due to a shipping error, we got two extra copies of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, so we should really give those away A.S.A.P. The target film will be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which will be in its third weekend of release, so there will be plenty of information to judge your prediction on. In order to win, one must simply predict the third weekend box office number for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or could win a lump of coal.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or they might be the recipient of the lump of coal.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack or they might be stuck with the lump of coal.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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The winners of our Secret Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Incarnate opening weekend were...
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The Secret Life of Pets is one of the biggest hits of the year and one of the biggest original animated films of all time. That said, strong box office numbers doesn’t mean high quality. Minions earned nearly $300 million more at the box office, but it is strictly for kids. Will The Secret Life of Pets have what it takes to entertain adults as well? Or is it another movie that only kids will enjoy?
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Next week is the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is one of two weekends that are historically the worst weekends of the year. (The other is the weekend after Labor Day.) Often times, there are no wide releases to talk about this week and that appears to be the case this year, as Incarnate is reportedly only opening in 1,500 theaters. It has not been a good year for releases like this, so I suspect the winning prediction will be on the low side. However, it is the only film with a shot at the top ten, so it is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Incarnate.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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This is the Tuesday before Black Friday / Cyber Monday. It is the last chance for a home market release to come out before one of the most important shopping weekends of the year. However, it also means the new releases coming out have to compete with massive sales and they will tend to get lost in the crowd. Overall, this is a negative for the new releases, which explains why there are not many big titles. The biggest release of the week is Kubo and the Two Strings, which is also one of the best. If you don’t have any of the Laika films, then the Box Set is easily worth picking up. However, I’m giving the Pick of the Week title to Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXXVII, because I’m a huge fanboy.
Doctor Strange started its international run in first place with $86.0 million in 33 markets. This is 49% better than Ant-Man’s debuts in these markets. If the film does as well here, it would earn $85 million this coming weekend. The film’s biggest international market was South Korea, where it debuted with $12.95 million on 1,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $18.05 million. It dominated the weekend box office there. It earned an easy first place in the U.K. with $11.29 million in 602 theaters. The film also opened in first place in France ($5.7 million); Australia ($4.90 million); Germany ($4.8 million); and Mexico ($4.67 million). If the film does as well during the rest of its international run, it will earn just over $500 million internationally. However, since its reviews are better than Ant-Man’s reviews were, it could have even better legs. We will know more this time next week.
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The winners of our Burn it Down contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Inferno's opening weekend were...
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Bridget Jones’s Baby remained in first place with $22.1 million on 5,092 screens in 47 markets for totals of $67.42 million internationally and $84.01 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $100 million internationally and perhaps $150 million worldwide. That's enough to pay for its $35 million production budget and perhaps all of its advertising budget as well. The film’s best new opening of the week was Italy, where it managed second place with $1.9 million on 421 screens. Its biggest market overall was the U.K. where it remained in first place with $8.39 million in 648 theaters for a two-week total of $27.59 million. It is now the biggest September release of all time in that market, topping Calendar Girls’ 13-year old record.
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There were two films that could lay claim to top spot on the international chart. Star Trek Beyond has the better claim earning $16.6 million over the weekend in 40 markets for totals of $161.5 million internationally and $318.1 million worldwide. Its biggest debut came from Mexico, where it pulled in $1.29 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $1.43 million. This was enough for first place. The film also remained in first place in China with $11.41 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $53.66 million.
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Star Trek Beyond climbed into first place for the first time in its run with $37.0 million in 40 markets for totals of $131.1 million internationally and $285.4 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with a total opening of $30.92 million, including previews. It was not as strong in Brazil, where it earned $1.6 million on 479 screens. The film is doing well enough that it should break even, eventually, but it is not a truly monster hit.
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Jason Bourne returned to first place with $56.2 million on 10,247 screens in 62 markets for totals of $197.73 million internationally and $347.01 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $23.96 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $49.13 million. The entire six day opening is included in the weekend number. Its total in China is already better than the lifetime totals for any other film in the franchise. The film wasn’t quite as potent in Mexico, but it still did well earning first place with $1.53 million over the weekend, which is the best opening in the franchise.
The Secret Life of Pets rose to first place with $43.8 million on 12,049 screens in 55 markets for totals of $327.20 million internationally and $674.03 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Russia with $9.92 million in 1,284 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.24 million, including previews.
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Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run.
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As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled.
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Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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Jason Bourne opened in first place on the international chart with $50.74 million in 5,006 theaters in 48 markets. There were two markets that had a claim for biggest opening for the film: South Korea and the U.K. The film earned third place in South Korea with $8.02 million on 826 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.39 million. Meanwhile in the U.K., it earned second pace with $10.09 million in 561 theaters. The film earned first place in Australia with $5.85 million on 554 screens. Compared to the biggest hit in the franchise, The Bourne Ultimatum, these results were mixed. On the one hand, Ultimatum finished with less than $15 million in South Korea during its total run there, so an opening of over $11 million is amazing. On the other hand, Ultimatum opened with nearly $13 million in the U.K., which is close to 30% more than Jason Bourne’s opening. It will take a few more openings, plus a look at the film’s legs, to tell where it has finished.
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There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end.
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Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less.
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The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond led the way on the Friday box office chart, earning $22.5 million. This is in line with the average among analysts, but lower than my prediction. I did warn you about irrational exuberance. Given the film’s reviews and its A CinemaScore, it should have a relatively good internal multiplier. Look for an opening weekend of close to $57 million, which is significantly better than Ghostbusters’ opening with last week and not that much worse than what X-Men: Apocalypse opened with in May. I assume Paramount is happy with this result, but the film will need good legs and a strong international run to justify another sequel.
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Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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Café Society earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $71,858 in five theaters over the weekend. This is not only the best of the weekend, it is the best of the year so far, topping the previous champ, Captain America: Civil War, which had an average of $42,390 during its opening weekend. Second place went to Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party with an average of $24,938; however, while this is a great result for a documentary, digging just a little into the film’s numbers reveals major weaknesses. The film fell 50% from Friday to Saturday. That’s devastating. We will see if this is an anomaly or a portent when we get this coming weekend’s results. Ghostbusters and The Secret Life of Pets were neck-and-neck with averages of $11,612 and $11,604 respectively.
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After a huge amount of speculation on how it would perform at the box office, Ghostbusters is coming in right in the middle of (a very wide range of) expectations. Sony is projecting a $46 million debut for the supernatural comedy, which is far from the disaster many had feared, but some way short of the top tier. It’s also not enough for first place, even though The Secret Life of Pets will be down 52% in its second weekend.
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Ghostbusters topped the box office chart on Friday with $17.2 million. This is the best opening day for the director, Paul Feig, topping his previous champ, The Heat by 25%. If this film has the same internal multiplier as The Heat, then it will earn $49 million over the weekend. This seems a little high, but not out of the question. Ghostbusters’ reviews are better than The Heat’s reviews were, although both films earned B+ from CinemaScore surveys. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is a remake, so that tends to make the movie more front-loaded. Look for an opening weekend of $45 million. This is right on the edge between financial success and failure. The film will need help internationally in order to break even, but it is way too soon to know if that will happen.
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This weekend is rather sparse when it comes to wide releases. Ghostbusters opens this weekend and its buzz and reviews are better than expected and it could be a huge hit. On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million last weekend and unless it falls more than 50% this weekend, it will remain in first place. That doesn’t feel likely at this point. On the other hand, The Infiltrator opened on Wednesday, but in less than 2,000 theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive range, so it likely won’t be a major factor over the weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man opened in first place, pushing Minions into second place. Meanwhile, Trainwreck was a solid midlevel hit. I just don’t see 2016 being able to top that depth.
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As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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The Secret Life of Pets is storming to a massive opening weekend at the box office, with Universal projecting a $103.2 million debut for the Illumination Entertainment animated film. That’s just shy of the $115.7 million made by Minions this weekend last year, and the best opening ever by a non-sequel or spin-off animated film. This performance is particularly significant for Illumination, because it’s their first blockbuster from outside the Despicable Me universe.
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The Secret Life of Pets had an amazing Friday, earning $38.33 million. This is nowhere near Finding Dory’s $54.7 million opening day, but it’s still very impressive. Unfortunately, for The Secret Life of Pets, its internal multiple likely won’t be as large. Its reviews have settled at 76%, while it earned an A- from CinemaScore and both of these results are lower than Finding Dory earned. Then again, an A- CinemaScore is still a good result, especially since there have been only three films to earn an A from audiences so far this year. (Finding Dory is one of them, Captain America: Civil War and Me Before You were the other two.) I’m increasing our prediction from $72 million to $88 million, which does mean $300 million domestically is now a reasonable final target.
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The Secret Life of Pets earned $5.3 million during its previews last night. This is not as much as the $6.24 million Minions made last year. It is higher than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned. (Despicable Me opened before previews were standard and only pulled in $590,000.) Its reviews have slipped to 76% positive, but that’s still good enough to suggest good legs. $80 million is more likely now than it was yesterday, but direct competition could prevent that from happening.
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It should be a good weekend at the box office, at least for The Secret Life of Pets. The film is earning great reviews and should become the biggest hit of the month. There is one downside: the competition. There are a lot of options for families among the films currently in theaters, plus another movie from a long-running franchise opening soon. Also opening this week is Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, which is an R-rated comedy hoping to survive in the counter-programming role. It could become a midlevel hit, or it could fail to open in the top five. This weekend last year, Minions opened with $115.72 million. The Secret Life of Pets is not going to top that. 2016 has better depth, but likely not by enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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The Secret Life of Pets will have no trouble beating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates at the box office next weekend. It will earn more during its opening weekend than Mike and Dave will earn in total. Because of this, it is the obvious choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Secret Life of Pets.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Joseph and Mary on DVD, as well as one other previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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Independence Day: Resurgence started its international run in first place with $102.1 million in 57 markets. That's the good news. That bad news is that its biggest market was China, where it only managed second place with $36.09 million, including previews. In most of the rest of the world, the film did no better than it did here, relative to the size of the market. South Korea helped it out with a first place, $5.45 million opening on 926 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.49 million. It opened in second place in the U.K. with $6.91 million in 610 theaters, which is no better than its opening here. The film cost a lot to make, so it needs to do better than this to be seen as a financial hit.
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Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.
For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.
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