This graph shows Anya Taylor-Joy’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
IF made its theatrical debut last weekend and took in a respectable $33.72 million in its opening attempt, making it the top movie at the domestic box office. The John Krasinski-directed film was relegated to second place as the widest release, but will itself play spoiler to another newcomer as it becomes the widest-playing film in the land this week. Another trio of new films make their appearance this week, including another animated feature in the way of everyone’s favorite comic book cat, as The Garfield Movie makes its arrival into North American cinemas.
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Snatched from the Green Place of Many Mothers, young Furiosa falls into the hands of a great biker horde led by the warlord Dementus. Sweeping through the Wasteland, they come across the Citadel, presided over by the Immortan Joe. As the two tyrants fight for dominance, Furiosa soon finds herself in a nonstop battle to make her way home.
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Wednesday saw the release of the latest film based on a classic video game when The Super Mario Bros. Movie hit theaters. The movie opened in 4,025 locations and bumps up to a solid 4,343 cinemas starting Friday. The adventure film starring Chris Pratt as the beloved Italian plumber-turned-hero nabbed an impressive $31.7 million on its opening day in North America, while taking in $34.7 million overseas. Joining Pratt in the Universal Pictures feature is Anya Taylor-Joy as Princess Peach, Charlie Day as Luigi, and Jack Black voicing the role of Bowser.
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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will easily win its second box office crown this weekend, helped by a lack of direct competition and the tailwinds of a $181-million opening weekend. Our model thinks $70 million will be around a par score for the Marvel movie, and no new release will come within $50 million of that. Three new films come in with a shot at second place: The Menu, She Said, and The Chosen. Of those three, our model thinks The Menu has the best shot at taking that honor.
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After amassing a colossal $181 million in its domestic opening weekend, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever holds steady going into its second weekend, keeping its 4,396 locations from week one. The sequel surpassed $400 million globally on Wednesday, with $213 million coming from North American viewings, while $187 million arrived from overseas markets. Wakanda Forever won’t be challenged this week at the box office, but two new wide releases make their arrival to cinemas, and She Said, and The Menu, should provide options for nearly every taste.
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It should be a fun-filled weekend for moviegoers as not only are there plenty of indie films hitting theaters but we also see three new wide releases arrive on North American soil, joining last week’s box office leaders Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. After amassing over $200 million in its first two weeks, the former drops two spots on the theater count chart this week, showing in 3,809 theaters, while the latter adds cinemas, coming in at 4,245 locations and becoming this week’s widest release.
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After four straight weekends with a movie opening to over $40 million, the market is taking a bit of a breather this weekend, at least in the sense of there being a “must see” film for general audiences. However, with no less than six films either opening or expanding wide, the number of options available to moviegoers is the largest its been in a long while. Our model thinks three new releases and the one wide expansion will land in the top ten, but Dune is the overwhelming favorite to win the weekend, even if it does fall fairly sharply from its $41-million opening.
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A young girl, passionate in fashion design, is mysteriously able to enter the 1960s, where she encounters her idol, a dazzling wannabe singer. But 1960s London is not what it appears, and time seems to fall apart with shady consequences…
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It has been a long time since we’ve seen a theatrical release from a major studio in North America, but that grim record may finally change in August. While there are only three major releases still on the calendar, and things remain in flux, it seems likely that at least one of them will open on their current release date.
That assumption is based partly on Warner Bros.’ decision to go ahead with Tenet’s release on September 3, and United Artists’ release of Bill and Ted Face the Music in theaters and VOD on September 1. With theaters steadily opening internationally, the pressure to release new films has become too great, even while the pandemic continues to rage in the United States. Even if expectations are very low domestically, it makes sense to start releasing films that have some international appeal, can lure moviegoers back to theaters in small numbers in the US, and then can make back more money from domestic video releases.
In the first part of this month’s preview, we look at the films that are lined up to open in August. Tomorrow, we’ll analyze what it’ll take to get box office earnings close to normal, and how long we can expect that to take, at least in countries that are bringing the pandemic under control.
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Emma. is the latest adaptation of the Jane Austen novel of the same name. It was previously adapted a number of times, arguably most famously as Clueless back in 1995. The film earned excellent reviews and opened well in limited release, but it struggled when it tried to expand and was all but gone from theaters the weekend after. However, it also opened just as the Covid-19 pandemic became a serious threat in the United States and its box office numbers were obviously negatively impacted by those events. Is it worth checking out for fans of period pieces? Or would it have struggled even under better circumstances?
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We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next twofilms combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate.
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It is one of the worst times of year to release a film in limited release, as the Oscars are still taking up a lot of space and it is too soon for summer to boost the box office numbers. That said, while there are not a lot of limited releases on this week’s list, there are some that might actually have a real shot at box office success. The Death of Stalin has the loudest buzz and the reviews are outstanding. Meanwhile, both Claire’s Camera and Thoroughbreds could be surprise hits.
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Childhood friends Lily and Amanda reconnect in suburban Connecticut after years of growing apart. Lily has turned into a polished, upper-class teenager, with a fancy boarding school on her transcript and a coveted internship on her resume; Amanda has developed a sharp wit and her own particular attitude, but all in the process of becoming a social outcast. Though they initially seem completely at odds, the pair bond over Lily’s contempt for her oppressive stepfather, Mark, and as their friendship grows, they begin to bring out one another’s most destructive tendencies. Their ambitions lead them to hire a local hustler, Tim, and take matters into their own hands to set their lives straight.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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The Witch only cost $3.5 million to make and barely opened in more than 2,000 theaters during its opening weekend. It was never going to be a monster hit. Even becoming a midlevel hit was likely out of the question. It did, on the other hand, earn more than $25 million, which is enough to make the studio happy, but likely not enough to break even just yet. In order to become a financial success, it will need to do as well on the home market. On the positive side, the reviews were 90% positive. On the negative side, the audience reaction on Rotten Tomatoes was a lot lower at 55% positive. Is this a horror film that will only please critics and leave the average moviegoer wanting more?
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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