August Preview, Part 1: Will This Be the Month for a Major New Release?
August 1, 2020
It has been a long time since we’ve seen a theatrical release from a major studio in North America, but that grim record may finally change in August. While there are only three major releases still on the calendar, and things remain in flux, it seems likely that at least one of them will open on their current release date.
That assumption is based partly on Warner Bros.’ decision to go ahead with Tenet’s release on September 3, and United Artists’ release of Bill and Ted Face the Music in theaters and VOD on September 1. With theaters steadily opening internationally, the pressure to release new films has become too great, even while the pandemic continues to rage in the United States. Even if expectations are very low domestically, it makes sense to start releasing films that have some international appeal, can lure moviegoers back to theaters in small numbers in the US, and then can make back more money from domestic video releases.
In the first part of this month’s preview, we look at the films that are lined up to open in August. Tomorrow, we’ll analyze what it’ll take to get box office earnings close to normal, and how long we can expect that to take, at least in countries that are bringing the pandemic under control.
Janelle Monáe stars as a writer living a good life when her ex-husband does something that causes her to be dragged into the past, or perhaps into an alternate reality, where she is a slave.
This movie could perform strongly, at least relatively speaking, as it is the right genre to do well during the pandemic. In fact, it has a good chance to be the first film to top $1 million during its opening weekend since theaters closed down. It could even make more during its opening weekend than the $4.3 million Trolls World Tour has reportedly made during its theatrical run. Granted, this is the first feature-length movie for Gerard Bush and Christopher Renz, who made their name in fashion and luxury goods advertising, which makes it a bit of a risk. Furthermore, while Janelle Monáe has more than enough screen presence to be an A-list movie star, she hasn’t been asked to carry a movie like this before. Finally, even the high end expectations won’t be enough to recover its likely low production budget, but at this point, any little bit helps and its theatrical run will be great advertising for its home market releases.
Update: Antebellum’s release date has been pushed back, per Deadline.
Unhinged is the poster child for the pandemic’s disruption to the theatrical release schedule, having moved multiple times over the past few months. It seems likely that it will finally be released on August 21, even though too few theaters might be open to support a wide release. It opened in Germany recently, but it struggled more than expected given the level of COVID-19 cases in the country, and Russell Crowe hasn’t had a lot of box office drawing power in recent years. Also, the film is being released by a brand new distributor, which normally causes a film to underperform as teething troubles are ironed out. As noted in last month’s preview, Solstice deserves credit for their bold strategy with the film, and hopefully will be rewarded.
This movie was cursed, even before COVID-19 was a thing. The numerous production issues it went through to get made is incredible. In fact, one could argue it was never fully finished, because planned reshoots never happened. (There were so many delays that the cast had aged too much to make reshoots possible. That’s a serious level of production hell.) That said, horror movies have been doing well at the box office, at least compared to everything else, and people will likely be interested in seeing these mutants before they enter the MCU officially. If Antebellum can serve as a reminder that theaters are open for business (albeit in small numbers, only in certain parts of the country, and with limited capacity), New Mutants could help boost business.
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Weekend of August 21st, 2020
Antebellum
Official Site: Antebellum.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: August 21st, 2020
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Supernatural, Writing and Writers, Slavery, African Americans, Time Travel, Delayed by Covid-19, Alternate Reality
Directed By: Gerard Bush, Christopher Renz
Written By: Christopher Renz, Gerard Bush
Starring: Janelle Monáe
Production Budget: Unknown - estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million
Unhinged
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Official Site: Unhingedmovie.com
Distributor: Solstice Studios
Release Date: August 21st, 2020
MPAA Rating: R for strong violent content, and language throughout.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Road Rage, Psychological Thriller, Revenge, Delayed by Covid-19
Directed By: Derrick Borte
Written By: Carl Ellsworth
Starring: Russell Crowe, Caren Pistorius
Production Budget: Reported at $33 million
Box Office Potential: $1 million
Weekend of August 28th, 2020
The New Mutants
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Official Site: 20thcenturystudios.com/movies/the-new-mutants
Distributor: 20th Century Studios
Release Date: August 28th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violent content, some disturbing/bloody images, some strong language, thematic elements and suggestive material.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Marvel Comics, The Past Catching up with You, Survival Horror, Mutants, Medical Crimes, 2010s, Delayed Release, Delayed by Covid-19
Directed By: Josh Boone
Written By: Knate Gwaltney, Josh Boone, Chris Claremont, Bob McLeod
Starring: Anya Taylor-Joy, Maisie Williams, Charlie Heaton, Henry Zaga, Blu Hunt, Alice Braga
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, The New Mutants, Bill & Ted Face the Music, Unhinged, Antebellum, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Alice Braga, Russell Crowe, Derrick Borte, Josh Boone, Carl Ellsworth, Knate Gwaltney, Janelle Monáe, Chris Claremont, Maisie Williams, Anya Taylor-Joy, Caren Pistorius, Charlie Heaton, Henry Zaga, Blu Hunt, Bob McLeod, Gerard Bush, Christopher Renz