Preview: January

January 1, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases.

Weekend of January 4^th, 2019

It has become a tradition for the first weekend of the year to feature a low-budget horror movie. Last year it was Insidious: The Last Key and this year it is Escape Room. Escape Room won’t do as well at the box office, because it is a new IP and The Last Key was part of a successful franchise. Worse still, the holdovers can’t compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi, so 2019 is going to get off to a losing start.

Escape Room

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: EscapeRoom.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: January 4th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for terror/perilous action, violence, some suggestive material and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Ensemble, Escape, Trapped, Corporate Malfeasance, Psychological Thriller
Directed By: Adam Robitel
Written By: Bragi Schut, Maria Melnik, Bragi Schut
Starring: Taylor Russell, Logan Miller, Deborah Ann Woll, Jay Ellis, Tyler Labine
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at about $10 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

A group of six strangers are invited to a special “Escape Room” event with a $1 million prize should they solve it. However, they quickly learn this escape room is a matter of life and death. This is a low-budget horror film opening the first weekend of January. I expected the reviews to be mixed, at best, but it should also earn more during its opening weekend than its $10 million estimated budget. Unless the film cost twice as much to advertise, then it will break even early in its home market run.

Weekend of January 11^th, 2019

This is the only weekend one could accurately call busy with three wide releases, plus two others at least worth noting. A Dog’s Way Home is an example of the incredible journey subgenre of animal movies that used to be so popular a few decades ago. I don’t know if there’s an audience for them now. Meanwhile both Replicas and The Upside look like typical January dumps, i.e., films that looked like a good idea at the time, but something went horribly wrong. Also opening this week is Perfect Strangers, but it is not opening wide, maybe not even semi-wide. That said, it could do well enough to earn some measure of mainstream success. Finally, They Shall Not Grow Old is getting a proper limited release starting this week with a planned wide expansion in February. It broke records during special screenings, so it could be the first big limited release hit of the year. This weekend last year was led by Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, while The Post expanded into second place. A Dog’s Way Home won’t match either of those films, so 2019 will continue its losing streak.

A Dog’s Way Home

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: AdogsWayHomeParents.com/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: January 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Talking Animals, Animal Lead, Missing Pet, Doctors, Road Trip
Directed By: Charles Martin Smith
Written By: Bruce Cameron, Cathryn Michon, Bruce Cameron
Starring: Ashley Judd, Bryce Dallas Howard, Barry Watson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $35 million to $45 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

This movie was directed by Charles Martin Smith, who previously directed Dolphin Tale and Air Bud, so he’s very familiar with this genre of family film. Additionally, similar films like A Dog’s Purpose did rather well this time of year in 2017. Perhaps this film will do that well at the box office. However, even if it doesn’t, I suspect it will do well enough on the home market to break even sooner rather than later.

Replicas

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: ReplicasMovie.com
Distributor: Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
Release Date: January 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for thematic material, violence, disturbing images, some nudity and sexual references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Mad Scientist, Car Accident, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé, Death of a Son or Daughter, Medical Crimes
Directed By: Jeffrey Nachmanoff
Written By: Chad St. John, Stephen Hamel
Starring: Keanu Reeves
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Keanu Reeves stars as a neuroscientist whose family is killed in a car accident, so he tries to bring them back with science. This feels like a typical January dump. It looks good on paper, but obviously something went wrong, or it would be getting a better release date.

The Upside

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheUpside.movie/
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: January 11th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for suggestive content and drug use.
Source: Remake
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Development Hell, Delayed Release, Confined to a Wheelchair, Life on the Outside, Going Legit, Remake, Foreign-Language Remake
Directed By: Neil Burger
Written By: Jon Hartmere, Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

There are some films that get pushed back and it is hard to figure out why. Then there are films like this one, where we know exactly why it took so long to hit theaters. It got wrapped up in the Harvey Weinstein sex scandal and that delayed its release, as it had to find a new distributor. This will likely hurt the film’s box office chances, as the box office buzz surrounding the original, Les Intouchables, has died off nearly completely. Furthermore, the film’s reviews won’t make up the difference. It’s not a bad movie, just very average.

Weekend of January 18^th, 2019

This weekend is Martin Luther King, Jr. long weekend and it is the only big weekend in January. Unfortunately for every studio not named Universal, Glass is coming out this week and it is widely expected to be a big enough hit that it has scared away all of the competition. There’s some good news for 2019, as MLK day was a week earlier in 2018, so this misalignment of holidays could give 2019 its first win of the year. On the very high end of expectations, Glass could earn more than the top five did this weekend last year. Even on the low end, it is expected to earn more than the top three earned last year.

Glass

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: GlassMovie.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: January 18th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence including some bloody images, thematic elements, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Super Villains, Villain's Point of View, Mental Hospital, Split Personality, Good vs. Evil
Directed By: M. Night Shyamalan
Written By: M. Night Shyamalan
Starring: James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson
Production Budget: Reported at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $150 million

Glass is a sequel to Split, which in turn was a secret sequel to Unbreakable. Split was a surprise hit earning $138 million domestically on a $5 million budget, so it is no surprise that it got a sequel. As for this film’s box office chances, I’ve seen predictions for its opening weekend as high as $75 million. That’s too much, in my opinion, but not impossible. I think it will open with just under $60 million earning $150 million in total. This does mean it will likely match its $20 million production budget opening day and I bet someone at Universal is looking to extend this franchise for at least one more movie, if not a full extra trilogy.

Weekend of January 25^th, 2019

The final week of January is not looking good. Not only is Glass widely expected to remain in first place, none of the new releases are expected to do much business. For example, The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action kids movie, and those are hit and miss. Serenity was yanked from a schedule and given a much worse release date, so that’s a terrible sign. Finally there is Untitled STX Action/Thriller. ... Yes, the movie is supposedly coming out in less than four weeks and it still doesn’t have an official name. There will be no prediction below, because how can I make a prediction for a movie when even its name is unknown? Frankly, I think it has been pulled from the schedule and the studio just forgot to tell anyone. (Last minute update: I was right. It’s off the schedule.) As for this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure was the first film released in 2018 to earn first place and it did so with $24.17 million. I think Glass will top that giving 2019 a small win in the year-over-year comparison.

The Kid Who Would Be King

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://www.foxmovies.com/movies/the-kid-who-would-be-king
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: January 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for fantasy action violence, scary images, thematic elements including some bullying, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Bullies, Secret Magic, Same Role, Multiple Actors, Good vs. Evil, Dragon
Directed By: Joe Cornish
Written By: Joe Cornish
Starring: Louis Serkis, Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimate at $30 to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

This movie is written and directed by Joe Cornish, who previously wrote and directed Attack the Block, so I am at least hopeful that it will do more with the genre than most similar films do. That said, the buzz here is really quiet. This does not mean it is definitely going to bomb, as family films generally don’t generate a lot of pre-release buzz, but it is an added concern.

Serenity

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: SerenityFilm.com
Distributor: Aviron Pictures
Release Date: January 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout, sexual content, and some bloody images.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Film Noir, The Past Catching up with You, Betrayal, On a Boat, Relationships Gone Wrong, Domestic Abuse
Directed By: Steven Knight
Written By: Steven Knight
Starring: Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway
Production Budget: Reported at $25 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

This movie has a great Neo Noir feel to it and the cast have had more than their share of box office hits. However, I don’t think this film is going to be among their success stories. It was originally scheduled for a September release, but was then pushed back to October. As far as release dates go, this is neither a good nor a bad sign. It is more of a lateral move. However, then it was pulled from the schedule and later set for a January release. January is a dumping ground for films like this. Maybe it will be a surprise midlevel hit, but I think that’s very unlikely.

C.S.Strowbridge

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Glass, Replicas, The Kid Who Would Be King, The Upside, Perfectos Desconocidos, A Dog’s Way Home, Serenity, Escape Room, Insidious, Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Willis, Keanu Reeves, Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart, Anne Hathaway, Bryce Dallas Howard, Ashley Judd, Tyler Labine, James McAvoy, Matthew McConaughey, M. Night Shyamalan, Charles Martin Smith, Barry Watson, Bruce Cameron, Jeffrey Nachmanoff, Bragi Schut, Neil Burger, Joe Cornish, Stephen Hamel, Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache, Deborah Ann Woll, Adam Robitel, Tom Taylor, Steven Knight, Logan Miller, Rebecca Ferguson, Cathryn Michon, Chad St. John, Jon Hartmere, Jay Ellis, Taylor Russell, Maria Melnik,