This graph shows Rebecca Ferguson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival last month and rolling out in 36 international markets, Dune has finally reached domestic theaters. The feature adaptation of Frank Herbert’s 1965 sci-fi novel showcases an all-star ensemble cast that includes Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson and Jason Momoa, among others. The film, directed by Denis Villeneuve, has a budget of $165m will open in an estimated 4,000 theaters, including IMAX locations and streaming via HBO Max. Dune has scored just over $116 million internationally.
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The pups of PAW Patrol are fighting to save the citizens of Adventure City on screen this weekend, and trying to do their bit to keep the theatrical business rolling after several turbulent weeks. Our model thinks they have a shot at knocking Free Guy off the top of the chart, but with four wide releases coming out this weekend there’s a lot to choose from for moviegoers.
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After having only one new wide release debut last week, this week will see three arrive in theaters. The largest of the three is 20th Century Studios’ oft-delayed action comedy, Free Guy, starring Ryan Reynolds and Jodie Comer. The film about a bank teller who discovers he is actually a background player in an open-world video game, opens in 4,165 theaters. The count is enough to topple Jungle Cruise from its two week reign as widest release, as the latter drops to 3,900 theaters this week. Next up is the biographical drama Respect, from United Artists Releasing and starring Jennifer Hudson as the late “Queen of Soul”, Aretha Franklin. The film opens in 3,207 locations. Lastly, is Sony Pictures, Don’t Breathe 2, the follow up to Don’t Breathe, which earned a worldwide total of $170 million nearly five years ago. The horror film, which returns Stephen Lang as “The Blind Man” releases in 3,005 theaters…
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December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases.
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Mission: Impossible—Fallout will likely end up being Paramount’s biggest hit released in 2018. (Bumblebee has a very slim shot at topping it.) It also earned some of the best reviews of any wide release of the year. Do I agree with the critical consensus? Or am I in the minority?
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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