Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for April 16th, 2019

April 17th, 2019

We’ve hit the summer doldrums on the home market, but we do have the first major hit of 2019 to talk about. Too bad Glass earned reviews that are so weak. Unfortunately, none of the smaller releases really rise to the level of Pick of the Week. Fans of animation are in luck, as both Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Justice League vs. The Fatal Five are both worth picking up. Bend of the River is a great western. Meanwhile, if you like B-movie cult classics, The Manitou is for you. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Super Bowl Wasn’t Super and Neither was the Box Office

February 5th, 2019

The Super Bowl broke records, but not in a good way. (Lowest scoring Super Bowl... ever.) Even so, the Super Bowl still had a devastating effect on the box office leading to arguably the worst Super Bowl weekend box office results since 1999. More on that year later. As expected, Glass earned first place on the weekend box office chart with $9.55 million, but it is never a good sign when the number one film earns less than $10 million. The best / only new release was Miss Bala, which only managed $6.86 million. Overall, the box office fell 27% from last week down to just $72 million. Hopefully this is the worst weekend of the entire year. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $866 million, which is $160 million or 16% lower than 2018’s pace. This is the worst start in terms of raw dollars since 2012 and the worst start in terms of tickets sold since 1999. However, the box office will pick up in March and while I don’t think we’ll match last year’s record pace, we also won’t see a once in a decade slump either. More...

Weekend Estimates: Miss Bala hits the Glass Ceiling

February 3rd, 2019

The weekend estimates have Glass remaining on top of the chart with $9.54 million over the weekend, giving it a running tally of $88.66 million after three weeks of release. It is a lock to get to $100 million domestically, although it will likely be pushed out of the top five before it gets there. Internationally, the film is earning $12.2 million over the weekend for totals of $110.3 million internationally and $199.0 million worldwide. It will soon become the first film released in 2019 to get to $200 million worldwide and it isn’t done yet. More...

Friday Estimates: Friday Falls In Line

February 2nd, 2019

It looks like it will be a weekend to forget. In fact, if Friday is a reliable omen, then this will be the worst Super Bowl weekend at the box office in more than a decade. The only good news is, this was more or less expected. For example, Glass remained in first place with $2.76 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $9 million on $10 million. Even if it hits the high end, it will still be within a rounding error of expectations. Get ready to read that phrase again a couple of more times this story. More...

Weekend Predictions: Super Bowl Looks to Bowl Over the Competition

January 31st, 2019

It’s Super Bowl weekend, which is historically one of the worst weekends all year long and it doesn’t look like this year will be an exception. Miss Bala is the only true wide release of the week, while They Shall Not Grow Old is expanding wide enough that it could grab a spot in the top five. Glass should remain in top spot, likely with less than $10 million. It’s not going to be a good weekend at the box office. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Winchester opened with just over $9 million and two holdovers earned $10 million. 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison, but because both weekends were so soft, the gap shouldn’t be too large. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: January Ends on a Quiet Note

January 29th, 2019

2019 has been off to a slow start and that certainly didn’t change this past weekend. Glass and the holdovers held up better than expected, but the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, both went nowhere. This led to the weekend box office haul falling below the $100 million mark at just $97 million. This is 25% lower than last weekend and 31% lower than the same weekend last year, when Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. Year-to-date, 2019 is already down by $100 million; $764 million to $871 million and it’s not going to get better in February. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass and Others put a Ceiling on New Releases

January 27th, 2019

Glass bounced back after a weak Friday earning an estimated $19.05 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $73.59 million. This is even better than our original prediction. It’s practically guaranteed to get to $100 million domestically, while it is doing a little better internationally. This weekend it pulled in $23.6 million for a two-week total of $89.1 million. The film has yet to open in China and when it does, it will get past $250 million worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: 2019 Continues its Cold Start

January 26th, 2019

It was a Friday to forget, and it’s going to be another bad weekend at the box office. Glass fell 69% from its opening Friday to $4.98 million this Friday. This is a sharper decline than anticipated, but even so, it should still earn a little more than $16 million over the full weekend, keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically. In other words, while this is a faster decline than predicted, it is not so fast that anyone should panic. More...

Thursday Night Previews: No News is Good News, Right?

January 25th, 2019

Neither The Kid Who Would Be King nor Serenity held Thursday previews, so there’s nothing to report on that front. That said, early industry tracking suggests I was a little too optimistic with The Kid Who Would Be King and it will likely have to settle for third place with under $10 million. As expected, Serenity is in a fight for fifth place and if it stumbles even a little over the rest of the weekend, it could land below the Mendoza Line. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like it will be a Serene Weekend

January 25th, 2019

The weekend after a long weekend is rarely a good weekend to release a movie and there are only two films attempting this challenge this week. The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action family film and those rarely do well at the box office. Serenity is... a movie... that... If what I read about the film’s surprise twist is correct, then this film could earn a D or worse from CinemaScore. Glass will remain at the top of the box office, unless something truly strange happens. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. More...

Preview: January

January 1st, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases. More...

The Kid Who Would Be King Trailer

October 22nd, 2018

Fantasy adventure starring Louis Serkis opens January 25, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...