June 28th, 2016
Usually, this time of year is terrible for the home market. However, this week, Kung Fu Panda 3 hits the home market. I'm still waiting on the screener, but its reviews are a step above most of its competition, so at the very least it is a contender for Pick of the Week. It's not the only contender, but there can only be one winner and this week it's Eye in the Sky on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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April 7th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice remained in first place on the international chart, but it did so with just $85.1 million in 67 markets for totals of $421.4 million internationally and $681.8 million worldwide. The film fell 77% in China to just $12.86 million for a total of $85.68 million after two weeks of release. It might fizzle out before it gets to $100 million in that market. You have to assume the studio was looking forward to twice that figure there. It fell 68% in the U.K. to $6.97 million in 612 theaters over the weekend for a ten-day total of $41.59 million. On the other hand, it held on very well in Brazil down just 39% to $6.44 million on 893 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.88 million.
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March 31st, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice destroyed the competition earning one of the best international opening weekends of all time at $254 million in 66 markets. Worldwide, the film made $420.01 million during its opening weekend, which was the fourth biggest opening weekend of all time. That's the good news. The bad news is the film's legs. Like its domestic run, the film started out amazingly, but saw its fortunes fall as the weekend went on. China is a good example of this. The film started out as well as expected, but by the end it pulled in $56.27 million during its four-day opening weekend. I read that the studio was expecting close to $80 million there. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $21.85 million in 612 theaters. At first look, that's a large number; however, its barely more than Deadpool opened with earlier this year. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.43 million) and in Brazil ($10.61 million), while it came close in Australia ($9.54 million).
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March 23rd, 2016
Zootopia remained in first place with $64.8 million in 49 markets for totals of $389.9 million internationally and $590.8 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in Australia, where it earned first place with $3.08 million on 479 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.48 million including previews. It also topped the charts during its opening weekend in Brazil with $2.57 million on 774 screens. The film's biggest market overall was China, where it remained in first place with $37.24 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $172.79 million. This blows past Kung Fu Panda 3's record for an animated film and it will soon become the first such film to reach the $200 million mark in that market.
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March 17th, 2016
Zootopia rose to first place with $83.1 million in 45 markets over the weekend for totals of $288.7 million internationally and $432.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market was China, where it grew to $59.44 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $112.83 million. It became only the second animated film to earn $100 million in China and should top Kung Fu Panda 3's record-breaking run of $151.74 million. The film opens in Brazil this weekend and the U.K. next weekend, so its run is far from over.
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March 4th, 2016
Judy Hopps and the rest of the cast of Zootopia got off to a great start earning $1.7 million during its Thursday previews. This doesn't sound like a lot compared to Deadpool, which earned more than $12 million just a few weeks ago. However, family films rarely do this well during previews. In fact, Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't even bother with previews. A good comparison is Home, which opened this month last year. That film earned $650,000 during its previews and its reviews were only mixed. As expected, Zootopia is no longer earning 100% positive reviews, but its Tomatometer Score is still a stunning 99% positive. This should help its word-of-mouth and a record-breaking run is still well within reach.
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 28th, 2016
This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).
All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend…
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February 26th, 2016
There are three wide releases looking to overtake Deadpool at the box office. I seriously doubt any of them will be able to do so. In fact, all three combined might not top Deadpool over the weekend. Gods of Egypt is by far the biggest costing $140 million, but it likely won't earn 10% of that over the weekend. Triple 9 is a rather generic action film that bombed in its debut in the U.K., which doesn't bode well for its run here. Finally, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good inspirational sports movie based on a real life story. Unfortunately, the sport in question is ski-jumping, which isn't popular enough to expect the movie will find an audience in theaters. This weekend last year, Focus was the top film, but Deadpool will likely beat it by $10 million over the weekend. It should be a relatively good week for 2016.
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 21st, 2016
After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom.
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February 19th, 2016
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The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.
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February 17th, 2016
Most people thought Deadpool would be a big hit over the weekend. I didn't see a single prediction that said it would be this big. It earned $132.43 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and a healthy chunk of its advertising budget. ... Or at least its initial advertising budget. Needless to say, there is already a sequel in the works. How to be Single had a very solid opening, while Zoolander 2 will need to become a hit on the home market in order to break even. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $239 million over three days. Wow. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey debuted. Deadpool made almost as much in the four days it was in theaters than Fifty Shades of Grey made in total. It goes without saying that 2016 won the year-over-year comparison. Its 11% difference is impressive. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $1.44 billion, which is 1.9% more than 2015's running tally at the same stage.
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February 13th, 2016
Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office.
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February 11th, 2016
It's Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day long weekend, so the box office should be very robust, at least compared to last weekend. Deadpool has the best reviews and the best buzz and should have no trouble earning first place at the box office. Zoolander 2 is earning weak reviews, but nostalgia could help during its opening weekend. Finally there's How to be Single, which is a Romantic Comedy. Any romantic film should do well on Valentine's Day, even one earning mixed reviews. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey came out, which is a movie my mind keeps trying to forget happened. It earned just over $85 million during its opening weekend, but less than that during the rest of its run. Deadpool won't open as fast, but it very likely won't collapse next weekend either. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in the short run, but perhaps by Monday, the tide will turn.
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February 10th, 2016
The Revenant returned to first place with $24.0 million in 67 markets over the weekend for totals of $176.4 million internationally and $325.9 million worldwide. By this time next week, the film will very likely be above $200 million internationally, while $400 million worldwide is within reach.
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February 9th, 2016
No films earned more than $10,000 on the theater average chart. I Knew Her Well came the closest with $9,312 in its lone theater. Kung Fu Panda 3 landed in second place with just $5,328, which shows you how bad the weekend was.
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February 8th, 2016
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Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday.
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February 7th, 2016
Super Bowl weekend isn’t exactly known for super-sized box office results, and this year will prove to be no exception, with Kung Fu Panda 3 comfortably winning the weekend with $21 million, down 49% from its debut. Hail, Caesar! will land in second place with $11.4 million or so, which is a decent performance from 2,232 theaters, although quite a bit softer than The Ladykillers’ $12.6 million first outing from 1,583 theaters back in 2004, and well behind the kind of numbers posted by True Grit.
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February 6th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 will easily win the race for top spot at the weekend box office. Not only did it earn first place on Friday with $5.2 million, but of all of the wide releases, it will be among the least affected by Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, this is still a little lower than predicted and it will likely only earn just over $20 million over the weekend. Its worldwide total is closing in on its production budget and it has barely started its international run, so there’s plenty of reason for DreamWorks to be happy, and there’s justification for another installment in the franchise.
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February 4th, 2016
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It's a new month and there are three wide releases trying to score and get February off to a fast start. That's probably not going to happen. Not only do the wide releases have to deal with Kung Fu Panda 3, but it is also Super Bowl Weekend with the Carolina Idontknows Playing the Dever Somethingabouthorses. ... Once the Seattle Seahawks were eliminated, I completely stopped caring about the NFL. The best new release of the week is Hail, Caesar!, which is the only film with a real shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies started out with mixed reviews, but that might not be a dealbreaker for its target audience. Finally there's The Choice. There are still not enough reviews for a Tomatometer Score and the buzz appears to be getting worse. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way this weekend last year, with more than all three new releases will earn this year.
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February 4th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 opened in first place on the international chart with $75.7 million in six markets over the weekend. This includes a first place, $50.77 million over the weekend in China for a total opening of $57.47 million. The film also earned first place in South Korea with $9.14 million on 1,364 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.54 million. Its other major market opening was in Russia, where it topped the chart with $4.71 million on 1,190 screens. The film will clearly do better internationally than it will domestically. It is too soon to tell how well it will do worldwide when compared to the other films in the franchise.
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February 3rd, 2016
The winners of our Kung Fu Dino contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend were...
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February 3rd, 2016
There was only one film in the $10,000 this week, Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned an average of $10,438. The best limited release was Rabin The Last Day, which opened with $7,940 in one theater.
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February 2nd, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it.
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January 31st, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 is making a solid start domestically this weekend with Fox projecting a $41 million debut. That’s the weakest start for any film in the franchise, behind the $47.7 million opening of Kung Fu Panda 2, and Kung Fu Panda’s $60.2 million back in 2008. The downward trend is in large part explained by the January release of the third movie, compared to June and May for the previous two. In fact, it still technically has a shot at having the best first weekend for a film in January, a record currently held by Ride Along with $41.5 million, although American Sniper really has bragging rights, with $89.3 million when it expanded wide last year. More importantly, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with an estimated $57 million in China, a record for an animated film in the territory, and $75 million internationally.
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January 30th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the chart on Friday with $10.5 million. There are not a lot of animated films that open this time of year, so it is hard to find a good comparison. If the film has the same internal multiplier as The LEGO Movie, then it will earn $42.4 million over the weekend, which would be a record opening for January. However, that movie was an original film, while this is the third film in its franchise. That will probably hurt it enough that $40 million is a more likely number. That's still a good opening, plus it is earning much more in China ($40.34 million after just two days of release) so there’s little reason to worry about its financial prospects.
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January 29th, 2016
Kids movies rarely have "midnight" shows and that was the case with Kung Fu Panda 3. This left The Finest Hours with the perfect opportunity to grab some of the spotlight. It only managed $375,000 during its previews, which is $200,000 less than In the Heart of the Sea managed late last year. It is closer to the $400,000 Selma earned before its wide expansion. The two films do have similar release dates and are based on real life events, but an action film should do better than a drama when it comes to previews. Even if we are being generous, $12 million looks like the high end for the weekend and that's terrible compared to its $85 million production budget. Less then $10 million is just as likely and that could result in someone losing their job.
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January 28th, 2016
There are three, three and a half, wide releases coming out this week. (I've seen reports that Jane Got a Gun is opening in 600 to 1,200 theaters. Even the high end will likely keep it out of the top ten.) Of the three truly wide releases, only Kung Fu Panda 3 is expected to be a significant hit. In fact, it will likely earn more than the rest of the top five combined. On the other hand, The Finest Hours will likely bomb compared to its $85 million production budget, while Fifty Shades of Black will be a financial hit only because its production budget is very low. This means for Kung Fu Panda 3 the only real competition is from last year, when American Sniper earned $30.66 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 should top that by about $20 million. Additionally, no other film earned more than $10 million last year, while this year there could be five films in the top five reaching that mark. 2016 should bounce back in the year-over-year comparison after two soft weeks.
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January 27th, 2016
The winners of our Do the Wave contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The 5th Wave opening weekend were...
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January 22nd, 2016
There are four wide releases debuting next week, but only Kung-Fu Panda 3 is expected to do very well at the box office. It could make more than the other three films combined make. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Kung-Fu Panda 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Land Before Time: Journey of the Brave on DVD. (It is a Walmart Exclusive.)
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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