February 27th, 2020
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It’s a strong, but shallow, week on the home market. There are only eight releases in the main list and a couple of them wouldn’t normally make the cut. However, nearly all of them are worth picking up and several were close to Pick of the Week contenders. That said, Knives Out was a clear choice for Pick of the Week. I will likely also be buying Food Wars, Three Fantastic Journeys by Karel Zeman, and others, but Knives Out is way ahead of the competition.
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February 13th, 2020
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Birds of Prey debuted in first place on the international chart with $46.5 million on 23,010 screens in 78 markets. This includes some impressive openings, like its first place debuts in Mexico, where it earned $4.18 million on 3,915 screens. It also earned first place in Russia with $3.81 million on 1,881 screens and in Brazil with $2.8 million on 1,506. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $3.7 million on 1,260 screens and in South Korea with $1.30 million on 946 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.98 million. The film could still break even, if it has long legs in some of the major markets, and if it can increase the home market revenue of some of its other D.C.E.U. films.
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February 10th, 2020
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The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat.
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February 6th, 2020
Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Original Screenplay. We have yet another close race with two films that are practically a coin-toss away from being the winner.
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February 5th, 2020
It is a slow week for truly great releases. Both Doctor Sleep and The Nightingale are worth picking up, but not Pick of the Week contenders. Last Christmas is also worth picking up, but only if you like Romantic Comedies with magical realism. As for the Pick of the Week, I’m going with That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Season One, Part Two and if you really into Isekai Anime, grab Isekai Quartet: Season One as well.
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January 13th, 2020
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The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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January 3rd, 2020
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The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry.
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December 31st, 2019
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The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isn’t too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst we’ve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020.
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December 24th, 2019
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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker recovered a little bit from Sunday’s estimates to earn $177.38 million for the full weekend. While it is always better to beat estimates, this isn’t a large enough margin to really matter in the long run. Its reviews and its B plus are fine for a blockbuster, but aren’t going to help draw in more moviegoers, unlike The Last Jedi. Internationally, the film made $197.7 million in 52 markets to give it a worldwide opening of $375.1 million. It enjoyed the third-biggest weekend in December, the third-biggest day in December, and it is already the 21st biggest worldwide release in 2019. Granted, most thought it would open faster than this, but the film is, at worst, a profitable disappointment.
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December 22nd, 2019
There are some mixed results on the weekend chart with some films topping expectations, while others are struggling mightily. Fortunately, the former category includes Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which is topping my prediction, albeit by a very small margin at $175.5 million, well below the $190 million projections based on Friday’s estimates. Yesterday, it looked like Rise of Skywalker would have similar legs to The Last Jedi. Granted, this film’s reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore are weaker than the previous film, but this one will have more help with the holidays. Christmas break has begun, so that should have boosted Sunday’s numbers, but sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case. However, and this is an important point, the film is still doing fantastic business, with the third-biggest December weekend ever, and it should be a monster hit in the end.
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December 19th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level expanded worldwide this past weekend helping it secure first place with a full haul of $86.96 million, including some previews and weekday numbers, on 40,908 screens in 69 markets for totals of $153.76 million internationally and $213.01 million worldwide. The film’s biggest opening came in the U.K., where it earned first place with $6.97 million on 1,651 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $12.63 million, which is a little better than the previous film earned in that market. Likewise, The Next Level improved on Welcome to the Jungle’s $5.00 million opening in Russia by earning $5.97 million on 2,890 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.29 million. Granted, sequels tend to have shorter legs than their predecessors, but a start like this is still great news and keeps $1 billion worldwide as a possibility. I’m not saying it is going to get there; in fact, we really won’t know until we see the film’s box office numbers for the next couple of weeks. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.
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December 17th, 2019
As expected, Jumanji: The Next Level dominated the competition over the weekend. Fortunately, it did so with a lot more than anticipated, earning $59.25 million. This is more than the rest of the top ten combined. Unfortunately, this happened in part due to the disastrous openings of Black Christmas and Richard Jewell. The overall box office rose dramatically from last weekend earning 31% more at $117 million. More importantly, this was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s a tiny margin, but any win is worth celebrating at this point. Year-to-date, 2019 is still well behind 2018’s pace down 5.7% or $620 million at $10.31 billion to $10.93 billion. That said, if we can chip away at that deficit, then 2019 can at least end on a positive note and save face.
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December 15th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level is not only beating predictions, but is also topped projections based on Friday’s estimates. The film’s weekend estimate is $60.1 million, which is easily more than the rest of the top ten combined. It is also 66% higher than the Welcome to the Jungle’s opening weekend, although that film had a Wednesday opening, so it isn’t a fair comparison. Internationally, the film is nearly as impressive, earning $85.7 million on 39,900 screens in 52 markets for totals of $152.5 million internationally and $212.6 million worldwide. This includes a monster opening in the U.K., where it earned $12.6 million over the five-day weekend, including previews. This is 32% ahead of the previous installment in the franchise. Overall, the new film is 33% ahead of Welcome to the Jungle’s performance in the same group of new markets. If you look at is box office so far, add in its solid reviews and the Christmas break and we are looking at a $1 billion worldwide run. Sony had a really bad three-year streak a few years ago, but this is the second year in a row where they have been back in form.
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December 14th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level got off to a great start on Friday, earning $19.4 million. Sony is projecting just over $50 million for the weekend after this start, which is well above our $42-million prediction, and in fact on the very high end of range of everyone’s predictions. Furthermore, the film’s reviews remain solid, and, while it doesn’t have a published CinemaScore yet, its word-of-mouth does seem like an asset going forward. Granted, it does have intense competition next weekend, but I have no doubt that Sony is already working on a third installment of the Jumanji reboot.
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December 12th, 2019
Jumanji: The Next Level will have no trouble earning first place and could earn more than Frozen II, Black Christmas, and Richard Jewell will earn combined. The real question is whether or not the overall box office will keep pace with the same weekend last year when Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse debuted with $35.36 million. I really think Jumanji will top that figure while this year will also have marginally better depth helping 2019 earn a much needed win in the year-over-year competition.
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December 12th, 2019
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Frozen II again won the race on top of the international box office chart, but it at least faced some competition this week. The film added $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings, but it did earn $800,000 in South Africa, making it the second fastest opening for an animated film in that market, behind only Minions. In other news, the film cracked $100 million in China over the weekend and now sits at $107.06 million in that market, including $9.84 million this past weekend. It took less than three weeks to top the lifetime total of the first Frozen in that market.
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December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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December 10th, 2019
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As expected, the box office collapsed this week, as it always does in a post-holiday weekend. Despite the best efforts of Frozen II and Knives Out, the overall weekend box office fell 50% to $89 million. This is 5.4% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s the more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 closed ground with 2018, albeit by a tiny margin and this year is still behind last year by 5.9% or $630 million at $10.16 billion to $10.80 billion. It has been a long time since we’ve seen the box office decline by that high of a percentage in one year; however, 2019 is still on pace to be the second highest grossing year of all time and it still has higher ticket sales than 2017 had at this point, so I think we shouldn’t panic over this.
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December 8th, 2019
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Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets.
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December 7th, 2019
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As expected, Frozen II earned first place on the Friday box office chart. However, the film fell further than anticipated, earning $7.84 million—off 77% from last Friday. That was a holiday, so obviously it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but projections have the film earning about $36 million compared to our $38 million prediction. This is close enough that I’m satisfied with the result and it is more than enough to keep it in wide release until after the new year.
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December 5th, 2019
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The weekend after Thanksgiving is one of the worst weeks of the year to release a film wide. In fact, many years there are no wide releases. This year, Playmobil gets thrown to the wolves, or to the mercy of Frozen II, to be more specific. I can’t imagine it will survive the competition. In fact, most think the wide expansion of Dark Waters will beat it at the box office and that film isn’t expected to land in the top five. This weekend last year had no wide releases and Frozen II should earn more than last year’s top two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned combined. December should get off to a fast start on the year-over-year competition and hopefully that’s a good omen going forward.
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December 5th, 2019
Frozen II dominated this past weekend’s international box office chart by almost as large a margin as it did last weekend. The Disney sequel earned $163.8 million in 45 markets for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $739.8 million worldwide. This includes a trio of first-place openings in major markets, led by Russia at $13.7 million on 1,682 screens, while it also topped the charts in Italy ($8.6 million including previews) and Australia ($6.6 million). Furthermore, according to Disney, the film is already the highest-grossing animated film of all time in both the Philippines ($12.2 million) and Indonesia ($11.1 million). It has already topped the original in a number of other markets, mostly in Asia, led by China with an impressive running tally of $91.0 million in just two weeks.
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December 2nd, 2019
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2019 hasn’t been a great year and has consistently been behind 2018. However, 2018 was the biggest ever year at the box office and 2019 has been in a battle for second place for much of the year. Thanksgiving beat expectations and the overall performances over the Thanksgiving weekend really helped 2019’s chances to secure second place. Frozen II broke records earning first place for its three-day and five-day Thanksgiving weekends. In fact, its three-day weekend haul of $85.98 million would have landed in third place on the all-time five-day chart. Additionally, both new releases, Knives Out and Queen and Slim, topped expectations leading to a robust box office. Granted, the overall box office was a little lower, down 12%, from last weekend at $180 million. This is common for Thanksgiving, as the Wednesday and Thursday holidays are so popular with moviegoers that they reduce the box office potential of the Friday through Sunday weekend. This is 56% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is due to a misalignment in the holidays. This Thanksgiving was 16.5% lower than last year’s Thanksgiving, but the misalignment of the holidays does have an effect there as well, so it isn’t a perfect comparison either. Next weekend will be a lot better when it comes to the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a large margin, but 2019 was able to close to the gap a bit to 6.0% or $640 million at $10.03 billion to $10.67 billion. Getting that gap lower is the goal for December, as it is virtually impossible that 2019 will catch up completely. I would be really impressed if they can cut that gap in half.
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December 1st, 2019
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Frozen II’s weekend haul wasn’t quite up to the level it was during the week, but it was still impressive. In fact, it is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $85.25 million, giving it $123.75 million over five days and a running tally of $287.57 million. It will break the three-day and the five-day Thanksgiving records, topping the second place film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, by substantial margins. Frozen II will have no trouble getting to $300 million shortly, while topping $400 million is practically assured at this point. Meanwhile, it is adding $163.8 million in 45 markets internationally for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $738.6 million worldwide. The film had a trio of first-place openings in major markets this past weekend, including Russia with $13.7 million, which Disney is reporting as the best opening for an animated film in that market. In Italy, it earned $7.7 million over the weekend and $8.6 million including previews, which is the best for a Disney animated film. It wasn’t as impressive in Australia with an opening of $6.6 million, but this was still 59% more than the first Frozen opened with in that market. At this point, the film has fully paid for its production budget, and while it likely cost between $150 million and $200 million to advertise, it should last in theaters long enough to cover that as well. That’s assuming the film had no more markets to open in, which isn’t the case. It has yet to open in Brazil and some smaller markets, so it should get a boost at the box office over the next month and a bit.
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November 30th, 2019
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Frozen II remains on pace to top expectations and set a couple of Thanksgiving weekend records. It should earn both the three-day and the five-day records. In fact, with a Friday haul of $34.03 million, it is on pace for about $85 million from Friday through Sunday, meaning its three-day Thanksgiving weekend won’t be too far behind the first Frozen’s five-day Thanksgiving weekend haul of $93.59 million. Even with weaker legs thanks to weaker reviews, a lower A minus CinemaScore, and being a sequel, it is still on pace to top its predecessor and hit $400 million domestically with ease.
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November 29th, 2019
Frozen II slipped faster than anticipated on Thursday, pulling in $14.72 million. Family films tend to fall faster on Thanksgiving Thursday, because families spend time with each other rather than going to the theaters, but I was hoping it wouldn’t fall quite this fast. Frozen II fell fast enough that the more adult oriented The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remains the Biggest Thursday in November, albeit by a very close margin. Furthermore, the film is still well ahead of our prediction, helping it crack $200 million domestically on Thursday. Projections have the film destroying the 5-Day Thanksgiving record, with $130 million, maybe more, so there’s plenty to celebrate. As for the film’s long term chances, it doesn’t have any direct competition until Christmas Day, so it will have no trouble remaining in wide release until the New Year.
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November 28th, 2019
After breaking the record for Biggest Monday of November and the Biggest Tuesday of November, Frozen II had to settle for second place for the Biggest Wednesday of November, as it earned $23.78 million on Wednesday. This puts it just shy of The Matrix Revolutions’s record of $24.31 million; however, that was The Matrix Revolutions’ opening day, so I think it is safe to assume Frozen II will be back on top on Thursday. Furthermore, this puts the film on pace to top our prediction by a substantial margin. In fact, it looks like it will top its three-day opening weekend over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. It’s chances of matching its predecessor have increased dramatically.
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November 27th, 2019
There are two wide releases this Thanksgiving, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Unfortunately, only one of those two films, Knives Out, is expected to make any real impact at the box office. Queen and Slim is just hoping to reach the top five. That said, both films will be crushed by Frozen II, which broke records last weekend and it is expected to have a strong hold during the holidays. This weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving and the biggest new release was The Possession of Hannah Grace. Queen and Slim should top that at the box office. In fact, Knives Out might top Ralph Breaks the Internet’s sophomore stint, so even without Frozen II, the weekend would be looking good. 2019 might do well enough on the year-over-year competition that it will save November and give the year a real shot at ending on a strong note.
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November 1st, 2019
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Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year.
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July 8th, 2019
Murder mystery, written and directed by Rian Johnson, with an ensemble cast led by Daniel Craig and Chris Evans opens November 27 ... Full Movie Details.
When renowned crime novelist Harlan Thrombey is found dead at his estate just after his 85th birthday, the inquisitive and debonair Detective Benoit Blanc is mysteriously enlisted to investigate. From Harlan’s dysfunctional family to his devoted staff, Blanc sifts through a web of red herrings and self-serving lies to uncover the truth behind Harlan’s untimely death.
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