2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 6, 2020

Parasite

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Original Screenplay. We have yet another close race with two films that are practically a coin-toss away from being the winner.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. However, they are for both original, adapted, and combined writing categories, depending on the award in question. Previous awards and nominations are for theatrical and not TV programs, on the other hand. )

Best Original Screenplay

Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story
Tomatometer Score: 95% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, WGA, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One WGA, One Film Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I don’t think it is controversial to predict Noah Baumbach will win an Oscar within his career. However, I don’t think he will win this year.

Rian Johnson for Knives Out
Tomatometer Score: 97% Positive
Movie’s Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and Golden Globe
Movie’s Previous Major Wins: None
Writer’s Previous Major Nominations: WGA
Writer’s Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is the film I most want to win this Oscar, but I don’t think it is going to get there. It didn’t win either of the two previous major awards it was nominated for and Rian Johnson doesn’t have a track record with Oscar voters. That said, it’s reviews are fantastic, so you can’t completely count it out either.

Joon-ho Bong and Han Jin-won for Parasite
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Movie’s Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globe, and WGA
Movie’s Previous Major Wins: BAFTA and WGA
Writers’ Previous Major Nominations: None
Writers’ Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: It is super rare for a foreign-language film to earn any Oscar nominations outside of the Foreign-language Oscar category. It is even rarer for them to win. However, this film has already won the BAFTA and the WGA, so it arguably has the best chances to win this award as well. It is a close race, on the other hand.

Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns for 1917
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film’s reviews are on the low side for an Oscar-winning movie. That said, the film has the potential to win a lot of technical awards and that might help it ride a wave earning several more prestigious awards as well. I wouldn’t bet on it, but there’s a chance.

Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Tomatometer Score: 85% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Four BAFTAs, Four Golden Globes, and One Film Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, Two BAFTAs, Two Golden Globes, and One Film Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Quentin Tarantino has done so well with Oscar voters that even one of his weaker films has to be seen as a serious Oscar contender. In fact, many think it is the favorite to win this category. I see where they are coming from and I think it is too close to call.

Conclusion: Parasite and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood are the two frontrunners and they are so close that either could win the Oscar and I don’t think anyone would be truly surprised. That said, if I were forced to pick a favorite, I would go with Joon-ho Bong and Han Jin-won for Parasite.

We will finish the Oscar Highlights on Saturday morning with Best Director and Best Picture, which means there will be no Oscar stories tomorrow.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, 1917, Knives Out, Parasite (기생충), Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach, Sam Mendes, Quentin Tarantino, Rian Johnson, Joon-ho Bong, Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Han Jin-won