Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for May 7th, 2019

May 8th, 2019

It is yet another slow week on the home market with very few first-run releases of note. There are three contenders for Pick of the Week: Better Call Saul: Season 4, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part on 4K Ultra HD, and My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part One. It is too close to call, so I’m declaring a three-way tie. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Alita Battles Disbelievers and Wins

February 20th, 2019

The weekend wasn’t as bad as it could have been, at least not at the top. Alita: Battle Angel topped all but the most bullish expectations with $42.25 million from Thursday through Sunday. Isn’t It Romantic matched expectations nearly perfectly, while Happy Death Day 2U struggled, but should still break even, eventually. Overall, the box office rose 8.4% from last weekend, but plummet 57% from the same weekend last year. On the positive side, that was the weekend Black Panther debuted, so we knew a drop-off like this was to be expected. On the negative side, as of the end of business on Monday, 2019 was behind 2018’s pace by a margin of over $350 million or nearly 23%. 2019 will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance of completing a comeback. Hell, it will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance to avoid a worst-in-a-decade end result. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: 2019 Continues its Slump

February 12th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part missed expectations over the weekend, leading to yet another disappointing overall performance at the box office. Granted, the box office did climb by 55% from last weekend to $112 million. However, last weekend was the worst weekend at the box office in more than a year. Additionally, $112 million is still 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $1.01 billion; however, this is still 15% lower than last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2011, in terms of raw dollars. If we go by ticket sales, we have to look all the way back to 1999 to find a slower start to the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lego Tops Chart, but Fails to Match the Original

February 10th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part reportedly cost $99 million to make and it will earn that much domestically, so it will very likely make a profit and Warner Bros. will be fine. That said, it is estimated to only manage $34.4 million over the weekend, which is about 40% lower than expectations and almost exactly 50% lower than the first film opened with. Its reviews are 84% positive, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore, so it really should have done better than this. This hopefully isn’t a sign that the overall box office is unhealthy, but just a sign that WB has pushed the franchise too much too soon. Internationally, the film started with $18.1 million in 63 markets. This includes a first place, $5.2 million on 1,301 screens in the U.K. It also managed first place in Russia with $1.7 million on 2,493 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in Brazil with just $707,000 on 854 screens, which is the weakest start in the franchise. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Receive a Cold Welcome

February 9th, 2019

Friday’s box office can best be described as “What happened?” Thursday previews looked promising, but then the Friday numbers arrived and it looks like most of the new releases will miss expectations. This includes The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, which opened with $8.5 million on Friday, $9.1 million including its paid previews from January. This is well below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $32 million over the weekend. Its reviews are 85% positive, but its early CinemaScore is just A minus, which isn’t particularly good for a family film. Next weekend is a long weekend, so I think it will still get to $100 million domestically, which is more than it cost to make. However, a lot of people thought it had a real shot at $200 million domestically, so this is a real disappointment. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Lego Lifts Off with $2.1 million in Combined Previews

February 8th, 2019

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part got off to a solid start with $2.1 million in previews. This includes $1.5 million last night and $600,000 from the January paid preview. This is a good result for a family film opening without the benefit of a school holiday. Granted, The Lego Batman Movie opened with $2.2 million during its previews in 2017, but as a comic book movie, it had more drawing power with adults and would be slightly more front-loaded. We don’t know for sure if The Second Part will make up the difference over the full weekend and match our $55 million prediction, but we will have a better idea tomorrow when the Friday estimates show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Lego Save 2019?

February 8th, 2019

I’m of two minds when it comes to this weekend. On the one hand, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part should be the biggest hit of the year so far and could be the first true monster hit of the year. On the other hand, it might not be enough to keep pace with last year. Only one other new release, What Men Want, has a shot at $20 million, while the other two releases, Cold Pursuit and The Prodigy, might not reach $10 million. This weekend last year, wasn’t quite as strong when it came to new releases, but it had a massive advantage when it came to holdovers. I think 2019 has a small advantage here, but I’ve been burned before, so I won’t be too surprised if 2019 loses in the year-over-year comparison, again. More...

Preview: February

February 1st, 2019

2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year. More...

The Prodigy Trailer

October 23rd, 2018

Horror movie starring Taylor Schilling and Jackson Robert Scott opens February 8, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...