Weekend Wrap-Up: Sonic Repeats on Top, Call Makes it Close

February 25th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend, but at least there was a relatively close race for top spot. This close race happened in part because The Call of the Wild beat expectations by a huge margin, but also because Sonic the Hedgehog fell faster than anticipated. This left the overall box office down 34% from last weekend to just $102 million, but drop-offs like this are normal for post-holiday weekend. Unfortunately, this was also 19% lower than the same weekend last year and this isn’t normal. Year-to-date, 2020 still has a lead over 2019, but it has shrunk to 6.2% or $82 million at $1.41 billion to $1.33 billion. Hopefully this recent weakness is only temporary. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Sonic Sets Records and Returns 2020 to the Top

February 19th, 2020

The long weekend turned out to be a lot more lucrative than many predicted, especially on the top. Sonic the Hedgehog broke records for a video game adaptation opening with $58.02 million over the three-day weekend and $70.00 million including Monday. It wasn’t the only success story of the weekend, as Fantasy Island did well for a low-budget horror movie and The Photograph did well enough to break even, eventually. The overall box office rose dramatically from last weekend, up 64%. However, it was a holiday weekend, so impressive growth was expected. More importantly, the box office was up 26% from the same weekend last year. And while the misalignment in Valentine’s Day did have an effect, this is still a good result for the box office. 2020 has opened a nearly $100 million lead on 2019, up by $99 million or 8.4% at $1.28 billion to $1.18 billion. A few more weeks like this and I will start to become optimistic. More...

Weekend Estimates: Sonic is Faster than a Speeding Pikachu

February 16th, 2020

Sonic the Hedgehog was in a close race with Detective Pikachu for the best weekend by a video game adaptation of all time, based on Friday’s estimates, however, that has changed. The film’s opening weekend estimates are $57 million over three days and $68 million over four, which is well above Detective Pikachu’s three-day opening weekend of $54.37 million. That said, this film’s reviews have slipped just below the reviews Detective Pikachu earned and Detective Pikachu didn’t open on a holiday, so that does make a difference. Regardless of whether or not you consider Sonic the Hedgehog to be the true video game box office champion, it is smashing predictions. Interestingly, the films demographics was 56% general audiences and only 44% families. Perhaps adult fans of the video game franchise decided to check out the movie for themselves. Boys under 12 outnumbered girls under 12 by a 69% to 31% margin, so this one is definitely leaning male. We have no international details, but the film is reportedly earning $100 million globally, which is a fantastic start for a movie that cost $90 million to make. I suspect Paramount is already working on a sequel. More...

Friday Estimates: Sonic Laps the Competition

February 15th, 2020

Love is in the air and it is moving fast. Sonic the Hedgehog decimated the competition, and predictions, earning $21.0 million on Friday. To put this into perspective, the next-best film is projected to earn just over $21 million over the four-day weekend. The film’s reviews have slipped, but they do remain in the overall positive level, while its A from CinemaScore is going to be a big help going forward. Paramount is projecting $60.0 million for the four-day weekend, but I suspect they are being overly cautious. Either way, it is clearly the studio’s biggest hit in over a year and will become their first $100-million movie since Bumblebee.

If the estimate holds, it will also be the best single day for a movie based on a game, bettering the $20.575 million earned by Pokémon: Detective Pikachu on its opening day back in September. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Sonic Speeds its way to $3 million

February 14th, 2020

Sonic the Hedgehog started its box office run with $3 million in midnight previews on Thursday. This is twice as much as The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned during its Thursday previews last year. I’m not saying Sonic will open with twice as much as that film did during its opening weekend, but there are reasons to be optimistic that it will top our predictions. Its reviews remain solid and there is a lack of direct competition with Dolittle slipping out of the top five this weekend. We will have a better idea where it is heading tomorrow, but so far I’m pleased. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Love Sonic and the Other New Releases?

February 13th, 2020

Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day combine into one long weekend. It’s a great early weekend of the year and there are four films hoping to take advantage of the holiday to get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, four films is too many for all of them to succeed and it looks like one or two will fall between the cracks. Sonic the Hedgehog is the biggest release of the week and will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the three other films will earn in total. This includes The Photograph, the only new release that is earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. It looks like Fantasy Island will have some of the worst reviews of the year. Finally, Downhill has the quietest buzz and that’s going to kill it more than its mixed reviews will. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Alita: Battle Angel opened with $28.5 million, while The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned $20.8 million during its sophomore stint. Sonic the Hedgehog should top that with ease. In fact, there are some who think it will top those two films’ combined weekend hauls. If so, then 2020 will return to its winning ways. More...

2020 Preview: February

February 1st, 2020

We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others. More...

Downhill Trailer

January 23rd, 2020

Comedy drama starring Will Ferrell and Julia Louis-Dreyfus opens February 14 ... Full Movie Details.

Barely escaping an avalanche during a ski vacation in the Alps throws a seemingly picture-perfect family into disarray as they are forced to reevaluate life, and how they truly feel about each other. More...