Weekend Estimates: Sonic is Faster than a Speeding Pikachu
February 16, 2020
Sonic the Hedgehog was in a close race with Detective Pikachu for the best weekend by a video game adaptation of all time, based on Friday’s estimates, however, that has changed. The film’s opening weekend estimates are $57 million over three days and $68 million over four, which is well above Detective Pikachu’s three-day opening weekend of $54.37 million. That said, this film’s reviews have slipped just below the reviews Detective Pikachu earned and Detective Pikachu didn’t open on a holiday, so that does make a difference. Regardless of whether or not you consider Sonic the Hedgehog to be the true video game box office champion, it is smashing predictions. Interestingly, the films demographics was 56% general audiences and only 44% families. Perhaps adult fans of the video game franchise decided to check out the movie for themselves. Boys under 12 outnumbered girls under 12 by a 69% to 31% margin, so this one is definitely leaning male. We have no international details, but the film is reportedly earning $100 million globally, which is a fantastic start for a movie that cost $90 million to make. I suspect Paramount is already working on a sequel.
Birds of Prey is earning second place with $17.12 million during the three-day weekend and $19.6 million over four. This would push its running tally to $62.1 million at the end of business on Monday. Internationally, the film is adding $23.0 million on 14,923 screens in 78 markets for a two-week total of $83.6 million. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it was down just 35% in the U.K., earning $2.3 million on 806 screens for a two-week total of $7.6 million there.
Fantasy Island is performing better than expected with estimates of $12.4 million / $14.0 million over the weekend, which is also topping expectations. Its reviews and its C minus from CinemaScore are not going to help its legs; however, the film cost $7 million to make and Sony’s share of the four-day opening weekend is more than that. It just needs to not bomb internationally to be a financial hit. So far, it is too early to tell. The film is earning $7.6 million on 3,500 screens in 35 markets, including $1.7 million in France, which is about on par with its opening here, and $700,000 in Australia, which is a little weaker. This isn’t a great start, but it is good enough given its production budget.
The Photograph is turning out to be a little more front-loaded than anticipated, with weekend projections of $12.27 million / $13.39 million. This is still a good start, but not as good as Universal was hoping. I don’t expect anything from the film’s international run, but its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore should help its legs and its home market earnings should be enough for the film to be profitable in the long run. As for the film’s demographics, the audience was 48% African-American and 56% female. I’m a little surprised it didn’t lean a little heavier on the female side, but I suspect Valentine’s Day date night is the reason for that.
Bad Boys for Life is rounding out the top five with $11.31 million / $12.83 million over the weekend and a running tally of $182.85 million. The film is doing as well internationally with an estimates of $11.1 million on 6,400 screens in 63 markets for a total of $187 million so far. It has yet to open in Italy and it should cross $200 million when it does so. Sony is having a great year so far and I hope it lasts.
On the other hand, Downhill is yet another flop from Fox that Disney inherited. The film only managed $4.67 million / $5.19 million during its opening weekend, but at least it avoided the Mendoza Line. Mixed reviews and a D plus from CinemaScore will result in short legs and a quick exit from theaters.
The Times of Bill Cunningham is the only limited release of note so far, but it is earning an average of $22,238 in two theaters, so even if no other limited release earns a spot in the $10,000 club, it is still a pretty good week.
- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Estimates: Sonic Laps the Competition
- Biggest Single Day for a Video Game Adaptation
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- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Night Previews: Sonic Speeds its way to $3 million
- Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences Love Sonic and the Other New Releases
- Theater Counts
- Biggest Weekend Day for a Video Game Adaptation
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, Sonic The Hedgehog, Fantasy Island, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Downhill, The Photograph, The Times of Bill Cunningham