Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Contest: Three Prizes for Two Strings: Winning Announcement

August 24th, 2016

The winners of our Three Prizes for Two Strings contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kubo and the Two Strings opening weekend were... More...

Home Market Releases for August 23rd, 2016

August 24th, 2016

There are not many major hits on this week’s list, but there are several releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes TV on DVD releases like Ash vs The Evil Dead: Season 1 (DVD or Blu-ray), as well as limited releases like Maggie’s Plan (DVD or Blu-ray). However, in the end I went with The Nice Guys on Blu-ray Combo Pack. More...

Home Market Releases for August 16th, 2016

August 16th, 2016

There are a lot of releases on this week’s list, but most of them are like The Angry Birds Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Combo Pack. They are good, but not good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. The best new release is The Fits, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Ratchet and Clank

August 15th, 2016

Ratchet and Clank opened in late April, which is a bad time of the year to release a movie, as the first of the Summer blockbusters is just around the corner. Even so, Ratchet and Clank was a serious box office disappointment. Is it as bad as its box office numbers? Or would it have thrived during a better time of year? More...

Contest: Three Prizes for Two Strings

August 12th, 2016

Summer ends next week, as none of the three wide releases are expected to do well. That said, Kubo and the Two Strings is the only of the three films that are expected to earn good reviews. Since no film is expected to be a major hit, we might as well choose the best film as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Kubo and the Two Strings.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ratchet and Clank on Blu-ray Combo Pack, which comes out on the 23rd of August, so the winner will be announced on the street date. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a second Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Contest: Live or Die: Winning Announcement

August 10th, 2016

The winners of our Live or Die contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Suicide Squad opening weekend were... More...

Home Market Releases for August 9th, 2016

August 8th, 2016

It is a really slow week on the top with only a couple of main releases worth being a contender for Pick of the Week: Supergirl: Season 1 and Sweet Bean on DVD. The Nice Guys would also be a contender, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week and it is worth waiting for the Blu-ray Combo Pack. With only two real choices, Sweet Bean is my Pick of the Week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Civil War's Opening Missed Mark, but still Tops Yearly Chart with $179 million

May 10th, 2016

The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Jungle Book wins Three-peat with $43.71 million

May 3rd, 2016

This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jungle Book Still Miles Ahead of Competition

May 1st, 2016

It’s another bloodbath at the box office this weekend, with the combined efforts of three new wide releases barely earning half of the third weekend’s gross for The Jungle Book. With Captain America: Civil War also posting over $200 million overseas this weekend, Disney’s reign of terror is just getting started. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases are as Quiet as a Purr

April 30th, 2016

The Jungle Book easily remained in first place on Friday’s box office chart, earning $10.25 million. That is down just 38% from last Friday and if the weekend as the same internal multiplier as last time, then we are looking at a $49 million weekend haul. That’s a lot more than we predicted and would push the film’s running tally well over $250 million. However, this seems overly bullish—I would expect a weekend total of a few million less. More...

Weekend Predictions: Kitten vs. Jungle Cat

April 28th, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend. More...

Contest: Good Kitty

April 22nd, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out next week: Keanu, Mother's Day, and Ratchet and Clank. I'm not 100% sure which movie will come out on top, but I really, really hope its Keanu. So I'm going to pick it as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Keanu.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, maybe. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, potentially. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.

The Twist for the month of April is April Fools. One winner will get what I consider the ultimate April Fools prize... two previously reviewed movies... on HD-DVD!!! Yes, one winner will get two movies on a dead format. (Who knows... maybe they will be collector's items one day.)

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Preview: April

April 1st, 2016

March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad. More...