Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Tenet Starts International Rollout with $53 Million Weekend

August 30th, 2020

Tenet’s long-awaited global rollout finally started this weekend, and the results are good enough for Warner Bros. to claim victory. Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi action movie opened with $53 million in total, including $7.1 million the United Kingdom (with a 74% market share), $6.7 million in France (68% market share), $5.1 million in Korea (80% share), and $4.2 million in Germany (60% share). While those numbers aren’t massive by historical standards in those bigger markets, the film actually set some all-time records in smaller territories. More...

International Round Up: Another Small Sign we are Returning to Normal

June 17th, 2020

For the first time in a long time, we got official box office numbers from a major studio this week. Sony released Little Women in Japan where it earned $495,000 and placed first in the market. The film also remained first in Denmark with $255,000 during its second weekend of release for a running tally of $750,000 so far. Both of these numbers are fairly good, as dramas are a lot harder to translate to other languages and cultures than action films are. They also indicate a growing theatrical market in both territories. Furthermore, the source material for this movie has a distinct American feel, so it is not surprising that it wasn’t a monster hit in either of these markets. Overall, Little Women pulled in $760,000 on 440 screens in 13 markets for an international total of $99.5 million after about six month of release. It should get to $100 million in the next week or so. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Sony Scores Again

May 14th, 2020

Sony continues to have a good year, given the circumstances. They just chalked up a win on the DEG Watched at Home Chart for the third week in a row. However, this week it was Bloodshot that topped the chart by rocketing up the chart 11 places. Why the massive jump? It debuted on DVD / Blu-ray. We haven’t seen an increase that dramatic since we’ve been tracking this chart; however, this is also a film that was still in theaters when Covid-19 forced it into VOD early, so there’s mitigating circumstances. More...

DEG Watched at Home Chart: Reruns Dominate Home Viewing

May 7th, 2020

For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Skywalker Remains Top Draw

April 23rd, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on top of the chart on this week’s DEG Watched at Home Chart. In fact, the top five were nearly identical to the top five from last week, so we are going to spend some more time looking lower down the list. More...

Home Market Releases for April 7th, 2020

April 6th, 2020

The movie industry is still reacting to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak and the changing release schedule has resulted in not a lot coming out this week. Even worse, there are only three first-run releases on the main list and two of them are serious bombs. Fortunately, the third first-run release, Little Women, is an easy Pick of the Week winner. In fact, it’s only competition is the Slings & Arrows: Complete Series DVD, a Canadian TV show that most people reading this have never even heard of. More...

Home Market Releases for March 24th, 2020

March 23rd, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak had basically ended the theatrical market with most theaters closed. Only drive-ins are showing any signs of life. Unfortunately, this is having an effect on the home market as well, some of it positive, some of it very negative. There is a rush to get movies from theaters to the home market and that’s helping improve the list this week. On the other hand, uncertainty with supply chains and stores being open means we could have a very short list next weekend, and next month. There are some big releases this week, including 1917, while Birds of Prey leads the VOD list. However, for Pick of the Week, I went with a much older film, Leave Her to Heaven, which is getting a Criterion Collection release this week. More...

International Box Office: Prey for Birds’ International Chances

February 13th, 2020

Birds of Prey debuted in first place on the international chart with $46.5 million on 23,010 screens in 78 markets. This includes some impressive openings, like its first place debuts in Mexico, where it earned $4.18 million on 3,915 screens. It also earned first place in Russia with $3.81 million on 1,881 screens and in Brazil with $2.8 million on 1,506. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $3.7 million on 1,260 screens and in South Korea with $1.30 million on 946 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.98 million. The film could still break even, if it has long legs in some of the major markets, and if it can increase the home market revenue of some of its other D.C.E.U. films. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscars Winners and Reactions

February 10th, 2020

The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat. More...

Weekend Estimates: Harley Quinn Can’t Lead Her Film to Box Office Success

February 9th, 2020

Birds of Prey is missing even the very low end of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $33.25 million. The film is earning good reviews and a decent B plus rating from CinemaScore, and it is also the cheapest installment in the D.C.E.U., so this start isn’t disastrous. On the other hand, it is struggling more internationally with just $48 million on 22,362 screens in 78 markets. Part of this has to do with the coronavirus, which has caused major disruptions in many Asian countries. And I’m not just talking about the entertainment industry. So far close to 1,000 people have died, which is a major disaster. Although to put this into perspective, this flu season, about 10,000 people have died in the United States alone. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 8th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We finish our shortened schedule with Best Picture, which is basically a two-horse race at this point. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay

February 6th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Adapted Screenplay. We have yet another close race. True, there is a favorite, or to be more accurate, a close two-way race, but none of the nominees can really be called long shots. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys Battle in Brazil

February 6th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place on the international box office chart, again, this time earning 31.21 million on 13,180 screens in 81 markets for totals of $143.09 million internationally and $291.15 million worldwide. The film has now made more internationally than the first film in the franchise earned worldwide. The film’s biggest new release of the weekend came in Brazil where it earned first place with $1.71 million on 810 screens. The film’s biggest holdover was France where it was down just 39% to $2.75 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.10 million. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actress

February 5th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Leading Actress. In this category, there is an absolute favorite and I will be so pissed if she doesn’t finally win. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 4th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing today with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, there is an absolute favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Older Release Dominates the New Year

January 14th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

Friday Estimates: 1917 has Exemplary Start to Wide Expansion

January 11th, 2020

1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?

January 9th, 2020

It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Star Wars Earns Trilogy of Wins with $34.5 Million

January 7th, 2020

2020 got off to a great start with The Grudge opening better than expected, while most of the holdovers also held strong. Granted, it is still a post-holiday weekend and the total box office did fall 28% from last weekend earning $142 million. However, this is 2.4% higher than the first weekend of last year and that’s a much more important figure. It’s way too early for the year-to-date comparisons to matter, but 2020 did get off to a faster start than 2019 did and has a 7.7% / $17 million lead at $231 million to $215 million. Again, it is way too early to make any predictions, but any victory now will make it easier for 2020 to keep pace with last year during the inevitable slow times. More...

Weekend Estimates: Skywalker Slips on Saturday, Still Scores First Place

January 5th, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: Skywalker is still Sky High, Grudge Makes Many Moviegoers Mad

January 4th, 2020

It looks like it is going to be a good weekend at the box office, as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is beating expectations at the box office, and it isn’t the only film to do so. The latest in the Star Wars franchise earned an estimated $11.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $37 million over the full weekend. The film needed about $31 million to remain on pace to hit $500 million domestically, so with this result, it is no longer a matter of if it will get there, but how fast it will get there. On the other hand, this is not enough to make a realistic run at The Lion King for second place on the 2019 domestic chart. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can the Grudge Hold Audience’s Attention?

January 2nd, 2020

It is the first weekend of the new year and the only wide release to talk about is a low-budget horror movie, The Grudge, with nearly no buzz and almost no reviews. Unfortunately, it has almost no chance of matching last year’s low-budget horror film, Escape Room. Fortunately, this year’s holdovers, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, will outpace last year’s holdovers giving 2020 its first win during the first weekend of the year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Rises Over Last Year Helping 2019 End on a Positive Note

December 31st, 2019

The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isn’t too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst we’ve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020. More...

Weekend Estimate: Skywalker Heads Earthwards

December 29th, 2019

The weekend isn’t looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. That’s without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappoint—and we saw too many of those in 2019. More...

Friday Estimates: Rise has a Sharp Fall, but Still Dominates Box Office

December 28th, 2019

The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Year End on a High Note, or will Rise have a Troubling Fall?

December 27th, 2019

The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note. More...

Christmas Releases: Little Women hopes to have a Large Opening Day

December 24th, 2019

It’s a Tuesday Christmas Eve, and that makes for a challenging situation for box office prognosticators, with Wednesday releases adding to the difficulties. Because of that, I am going to combine the weekend predictions and the limited releases into one shorter column. I will talk about all new releases / expansions for this week without going into detail over their box office chances. Look for a more comprehensive prediction column Thursday as usual. The biggest of the Christmas Day releases should be Little Women; however, that film is making big push for awards, and will likely have very long legs as a result. Conversely, Spies in Disguise is a rare family film opening on Christmas, which makes it a real wild card. More...

Friday Estimates: Star Wars is Going to have a Green Christmas

December 21st, 2019

Despite earning weaker-than-expected reviews, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to have no trouble topping my prediction for the weekend, as it earned an estimated $90 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $190 million over the full weekend. Granted, not everything is rosy, as the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. That’s not fatal, but it certainly won’t help its legs. On the other hand, the lack of direct competition and the Christmas break will certainly help it sell many more tickets over the next two weeks. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

2019 Preview: December

December 1st, 2019

Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate. More...

Little Women Trailer

August 15th, 2019

Historical drama, based on the classic book, opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...