Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Disney Decimates the Competition on its way to $13.2 Billion Record in 2019

January 3rd, 2020

The preliminary final numbers for 2019 have been announced and we had record-breaking results. Overall, the worldwide box office hit $41 billion, with a $30 billion international and $11 billion domestic break-down. Of that total, Disney was responsible for $13.2 billion, or 32% of the worldwide total. This does include its Fox releases, but the studio earned $11.1 billion by itself. This breaks the previous record of $7.6 billion, set by Disney in 2016. It doesn’t just break the previous record; it practically redefines the industry. More...

Home Market Releases for December 17th, 2019

December 18th, 2019

There’s almost exactly a week till Christmas, which explains the slim number of new releases. That said, nearly every film on the main list is worth picking up with a few contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close three-way race, but in the end, Abominable earned Pick of the Week. More...

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part II - TV on DVD Releases

December 4th, 2019

It’s TV on DVD week on the Holiday Gift Guide, for perhaps the last time. I’m not saying the TV on DVD market is dying, but it certainly isn’t healthy. Technology has changed and streaming services like Disney Plus have just become better options to watch TV shows than buying DVDs and Blu-ray. In fact, some of the more critically acclaimed new shows of the year debuted on streaming services and many of them still haven’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray and likely never will. My personal favorite new show of 2019 was new version of Twilight Zone, but that doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray until February. That’s not to say there’s nothing new on this list, we just have to look beyond regular TV series in some cases. More...

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Joker’s Hold is No Laughing Matter

October 15th, 2019

Joker dominated the weekend box office, crushing expectations and setting records in the process. The Addams Family also beat expectations and this really helped 2019. Granted, the box office was still down 7.8% from last weekend to $138 million; however, this was 3.8% higher than the same weekend last year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Setting October Sophomore Record with $55 million

October 13th, 2019

Joker is setting the record for the biggest sophomore weekend in October. It is estimated to earn $55.0 million over the weekend, which is nearly $12 million more than the current record held by Gravity. It is also nearly $20 million more than Venom earned during its second weekend of release. If this estimate holds, then Joker will have earned nearly $192.7 million after just ten days of release. Furthermore, its international numbers are just as potent with a weekend haul of $123.7 million on 24,000 screens in 79 markets giving it totals of $351.2 million internationally and $543.9 million worldwide. Given its legs so far, $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet. It would be nice to get a billion dollar hit from 2019 that isn’t from Disney / Marvel. The film had a pair of stunning debuts in France ($10.3 million on 630 screens) and Germany ($9.3 million on 912). However, its biggest weekend haul was in the U.K., where it was down just 22%, earning $12.0 million on 1,472 screens for a two-week total of $36.9 million. More...

Friday Estimates: The Joker Laughs at the Competition

October 12th, 2019

Joker remained in first place earning $17 million on Friday. This is 57% lower than the film’s opening Friday, which is a really good hold and puts it on pace for $58 million over the full weekend. This would lift its running tally to nearly $200 million after just 10 days of release and might even be enough to cover the film’s entire combined production and advertising budget. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like a Scary Weekend

October 11th, 2019

There are three wide releases coming out, two of which have terrible reviews, The Addams Family and Gemini Man, while the third film, Jexi, as no reviews. It’s one of those weekends. Joker is widely expected to earn first place and it should hold better than Venom did during its second weekend of release, which is great news for 2019. Furthermore, this weekend last year, there were three wide releases with a total opening of $40 million. We should be able to top that this year by a significant margin, but A Star is Born is the one reason why 2018 could win in the year-over-year competition. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Joker Destroys Box Office, Nearly Reaches Century Mark

October 8th, 2019

Joker easily dominated the weekend box office crushing Venom’s October record in the process. The film’s $96.20 million opening was more than 60% of the $150 million total box office earned this weekend. Furthermore, the weekend total was 64% more than last weekend, which is great news for 2019, as it has been struggling. Unfortunately, this is still 15% lower than the same weekend last year when Venom had A Star is Born opening strong as counter-programing. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $8.46 billion, which is a lot, but it is 5.2% or $470 million behind 2018’s record-setting pace of $8.93 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Joker Takes a Bite Out of Venom

October 6th, 2019

Joker is not only dominating the weekend, likely earning more than the rest of the films in release combined, but it will also top Venom’s October record by more than $10 million. Its domestic weekend estimate is $93.5 million, which is only dwarfed by its international debut. The film is projected to earn $140.5 million on 22,500 screens in 73 markets during its opening weekend. Highlights includes A $16.3 million debut on 1,418 screens in South Korea, which is a record opening for Warner Bros. in that market. It wasn’t able to break records in the U.K., but is still very impressive at $14.8 million on 669 screens, while it also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($13.1 million on 4,684 screens) and Russia ($10 million on 1,907. More...

Friday Estimates: Another Day, Another Record for Joker

October 5th, 2019

Joker opened with an outstanding $39.9 million on Friday, topping the previous biggest October day record of $33.08 million set last year by Halloween. This film does have weaker reviews and only a B plus from CinemaScore, which means its word-of-mouth won’t be as great. Additionally, a larger percent of its opening day came from previews, which is another sign it likely won’t have great legs. That said, it would really have to stumble to not get at least close to $100 million over the full weekend. It is not doing quite as well internationally, but close enough that it could earn enough during its opening weekend that it will cover its entire production budget. It will break even before Halloween. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Joker Have the Last Laugh?

October 4th, 2019

Joker is the only wide release of the week and this should help it thrive at the box office. In fact, there are many who think it will top Venom’s October record. Venom set that record this weekend last year, so if it breaks the record that’s good news for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison, right? It’s not that simple, as A Star is Born also debut this weekend last year and that depth will likely prove too much for 2019 to overcome. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra Shines on Top of the Chart

October 3rd, 2019

Ad Astra spent a second weekend on top of the international box office earning $18.0 million in 50 markets for totals of $53.5 million internationally and $88.9 million worldwide. The film had an elite opening in Russia with $3.16 million on 1,337 screens, earning first place in the process. On the other hand, it failed to crack $1 million during its debuts in both Brazil ($900,000) and Italy ($898,000). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Abominable Leads Small Box Office

October 1st, 2019

Abominable led the way at the box office this weekend, but there wasn’t a lot to celebrate. That film merely did okay for this time of year, while there were no other new releases to boost the box office. This led to a 25% drop-off from last weekend, down to a mere $92 million. Worse still, this is 13% lower than the same weekend last year when Night School and Smallfoot were a strong one-two box office punch. We’ve had a couple of winning weeks in a row, so this loss doesn’t hurt 2019’s chances too much and the deficit is practically the same as it was last week at 5.6% or $490 million at $8.28 billion to $8.77 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Abominable Earning Average-Sized Opening

September 29th, 2019

It is a mixed bag at the box office this weekend. None of the films are bombing, there are also no wild success stories either. Abominable is leading the way with an estimated $20.85 million opening. This is a little below expectations, but still a fine opening for this time of year. Additionally, its prospects have improved over the weekend, so it is clear its reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore have helped its word-of-mouth and that should help its legs going forward. The film also earned an estimated $8.8 million internationally in 30 markets for an early international total of $10.2 million It is still too early to judge how the film will do overseas. More...

Friday Estimates: Abominable Grows on its Opening Day

September 28th, 2019

Abominable bounced back a bit during Friday to earn $5.69 million. This is still behind Smallfoot’s opening Friday, but it is better than its previews. This is strong evidence that the film’s reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore is already having a positive effect. $20 million is now much more likely than it was yesterday at this time, while with a little luck, it will match our $22 million prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Abominable Live Up to Its Name or will it be ... Bominable?

September 26th, 2019

The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film. More...

Theater Averages: Where’s The $10,000 Club?

September 26th, 2019

The $10,000 Club didn’t have many members this week and none of them were really able to shine. Where’s My Roy Cohn? did the best with an average of $10,591 in four theaters. Meanwhile the overall number one film, Downton Abbey, was close behind with an average of $10,079. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra is the Real Star of the International Chart

September 26th, 2019

Last week, the international box office was dominated by international releases with six of the top seven films coming from overseas. This week, there is only four films that earned more than $10 million and only one of them wasn’t a Hollywood release. Ad Astra led the way earning $26 million in 44 markets during its first weekend of release. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it opened in second place with $2.83 million in 616 theaters. It did as well in South Korea with $2.32 million on 853 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.68 million. The film also cracked $2 million in France ($2.7 million) and Japan ($2.2 million). The film has yet to open in several major markets, so it is far from done. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and while it is doing better internationally, it isn’t doing well enough to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Downton Opens High with New Focus Features Record

September 23rd, 2019

It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis. More...

Weekend Estimates: Downton goes Downtown with $31 million

September 22nd, 2019

Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Downton Abbey has Class

September 21st, 2019

Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features. More...

Thursday Night Previews: New Releases Are Not Exactly Reaching the Stars

September 20th, 2019

Downton Abbey is going to top expectations this weekend, unless something really strange happens. The film earned $2.1 million during last night’s previews, making it easily the best of this weekend’s crop. (It also made $2.2 million in previous paid previews, so it is off to a $4.3 million start.) Additionally, its reviews are solid, even if its average score is below 7 out of 10. Finally, its target audience isn’t the type to rush out to see a movie opening night, so this start is even more impressive. I am a little concerned that the Fanboy Effect is in play here, despite the target audience, so keep that in mind. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Shoot for the Stars?

September 20th, 2019

A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks. More...

International Box Office: It Leads a Very International Week

September 19th, 2019

There were seven films to earn more than $10 million on the international chart this past weekend and It: Chapter Two was the only Hollywood release among them. The film managed $46.6 million on 20,605 screens in 78 markets for totals of $169.4 million internationally and $322.1 million worldwide. The film’s only opening this weekend came in France where it earned first place with $4.6 million on 600 screens. It also did well in the U.K. with $3.9 million on 630 screens earning second place during its second weekend of release for a total of $16.5 million after two weeks of release. It also earned $3.9 million during its second weekend of release in Germany for a total of $12.6 million so far. More...

2019 Preview: September

September 1st, 2019

Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably. More...