February 11th, 2014
It's a strange week on the home market. If you look at the top ten selling new releases on Amazon.com, there are a couple of first run releases, a catalog title, TV on DVD release, and some limited releases. That's basically every category there is. The biggest release is Ender's Game, a film that failed to find an audience in theaters. It barely earned overall positive reviews and it isn't a contender for Pick of the Week. Some of the other best-selling releases are contenders, like The Jungle Book: Blu-ray Diamond Edition or Sherlock: Season Three on DVD or Blu-ray. There are also a few of the smaller releases that were in consideration, including Doctor Who: Story 33: The Moonbase and G.B.F. on DVD. But in the end, I went with Wadjda on Blu-ray Combo Pack for Pick of the Week. One last note, Dry Spell is coming out on Video on Demand. It's a good chance to support ultra-low-budget filmmaking and the reviews I've read have been positive.
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December 5th, 2013
The weekend after the Thanksgiving long weekend is nearly always a dead zone for new releases, and that is certainly the case this year. Out of the Furnace is the only wide release this week, but its reviews plummeted compared to the early buzz. It should still reach the top five, but only because it would have to make less than $4 million to earn sixth place or worse. On the positive side, Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should finish one-two each earning $30 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, the two biggest film earned barely more than $10 million. 2013 will easily win the year-over-year comparison.
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December 3rd, 2013
Thanksgiving long weekend set records with both The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen breaking records for biggest Thanksgiving weekend and biggest Thanksgiving opening respectively. There was also good news for Thor: The Dark World over the weekend, as it topped predictions, and even while the rest of the new releases struggled, to be polite, it was a really impressive weekend. Over the three-day portion of the weekend, the box office pulled in a total of $208 million, which was 8% lower than last weekend. This is actually a very good decline, as the midweek holiday releases took some of the demand for the weekend. This was 82% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is misleading, because this weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving day. 2013 was stronger than last Thanksgiving, but by 0.0456% over the three-day portion. Over fives days, the box office earned $293 million, which was almost exactly 1% more than last Thanksgiving. 2013 has regained the lead over 2012, albeit by a tiny margin at $9.62 billion to $9.61 billion. Hopefully it can maintain this lead from now till January.
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November 27th, 2013
Thanksgiving long weekend won't be remembered for the quality of the films opening wide. In fact, of the three new releases on this week's list, only one of them is truly opening wide. Homefront is debuting in 2,500 theaters, while Black Nativity is only opening in 1,500. Oldboy is only opening in 600 theaters, but it still has a reasonable shot at the top ten. If it weren't for the wide expansion of Frozen and hopefully a strong hold by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the weekend would be a write-off. As it is, 2013 should crush 2012... mostly because there is a misalignment and this weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving. The post holiday slump meant the top five was only able to bring in a little under $75 million. I'm not saying Catching Fire will top that number, at least not over three days, but it should clear at least that much over the next five days.
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November 25th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire easily won first place at the box office this past weekend and it even broke the record for biggest opening weekend in November. Even so, its opening seems a little disappointing, because some analysts were predicting an opening of more than $180 million. The overall box office was still huge at $226 million. This was nearly $100 million or 80% more than last weekend. This was also higher than the same weekend last year by 9%. Unfortunately, 2013 is still behind 2012 by 1.4% at $9.28 billion to $9.41 billion.
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November 22nd, 2013
The weekend before Thanksgiving is one of the best weekends of the year to release a monster hit, and this year we get The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. If Catching Fire doesn't break the record for biggest opening weekend in November, it will be seen as a huge shock. It has a chance at topping Iron Man 3's opening weekend and securing top spot for the year. Catching Fire isn't the only film opening wide this weekend, but to call Delivery Man counter-programing is an understatement. It might not crack $10 million, but that will still be enough to earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was the Thanksgiving long weekend, so it is a little hard to compare the two and judge which one is stronger. Catching Fire should easily earn more than the top five did over the three-day weekend, perhaps even more than the top six or seven earned, but the real test will come next weekend when we can compare this Thanksgiving to last year's.
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November 21st, 2013
The winner of our Best of Luck contest was determined and it is...
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November 20th, 2013
Nebraska led the way on the per theater average with an average of $35,100 in four theaters. This is not as strong as Alexander Payne's previous release, especially if you take into account the difference in the theater count between the two films. The Great Beauty was next with $23,442 in its lone theater. The Best Man Holiday was the only wide release to crack the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,875 during its opening weekend. The Book Thief and The Christmas Candle were right behind with averages of $14,501 and $14,140 respectively.
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November 19th, 2013
As expected, Thor: The Dark World led the way on the weekend box office chart. However, The Best Man Holiday was surprisingly strong and helped soften the blow at the overall box office. Even so, the box office was down 26% from the last weekend at $125 million. A 26% drop-off is bad, but the year-over-year comparison was even worse. So much worse. Compared to this weekend last year when The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 debut, the box office was down almost exactly 50%. And with that, 2013 is no longer ahead of 2012's pace. It was bound to happen with the weak box office numbers recently. Granted, 2013 is only behind by 0.4% at $9.02 billion to $9.06 and one really good weekend could reverse that situation. In fact, the opening of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire this coming weekend could reverse that situation, but 2013 will be neck-and-neck with 2012 from here on out, instead of the solid leads it held for much of the year.
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November 14th, 2013
Last weekend, Thor: The Dark World made its debut. Next weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens up. With these two monster hits opening so close together, it comes as no surprise that this weekend there are not a lot of new releases. In fact, we only have The Best Man Holiday as a wide release. It won't be able to score top spot, but the lack of direct competition should help it score a solid second place. On the down side, this weekend last year The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened with $141.07 million, which is very likely more than the entire box office will make this season.
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November 8th, 2013
Next week there is only one wide release, but unlike this week, its rather weak. The Best Man Holiday has the weekend to itself, but will very likely get crushed by Thor: The Dark World at the box office. Even so, since it is the only wide release, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Best Man Holiday.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Kinky Boots on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Kinky Boots on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 1st, 2013
October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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