The worst year for the movie theatrical industry in a century will end with a series of releases that might define the business for the next decade. Only three of the major studios are daring to release films in theaters during what is shaping up to be the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sony Pictures is going the traditional route with Monster Hunter getting an exclusive theatrical release on Christmas Day. Universal’s deals with AMC and Cinemark to allow shortened theatrical windows in return for sharing PVOD revenue have prompted it and its specialty division Focus Features to release four films this holiday season. But all eyes (or many of them, anyway) will be on Warner Bros.’ release of Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max.
When the studio announced this release strategy back on November 18 there was speculation that, if it worked out well, they might do the same thing with some of their other upcoming films. Today they threw caution to the wind and announced that all of the studio’s 2021 films will be released in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time (in territories where HBO Max is available). While we’re still digesting the news, here are three quick takes on the rationale for Warner Bros. to make this bold leap.
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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The Directors Guild of America finished its theatrical nominations yesterday with the Documentary category. I'm of two minds with the list of nominees. On the one hand, I feel like I should be surprised, because a number of documentaries thought to be Oscar favorites were left off the list. On the other hand, they've been left off the list a number of times. I think it is time to rethink who is and is not an Oscar favorite.
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The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films today and will do the same for Documentaries next week. I have no idea why they do this, but it makes my job harder. Usually, I just wait till the Documentary nominations are announced, but this year I will do two stories. Next week will be mostly cut and paste job.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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There are two wide releases this week: Captain Phillips and Machete Kills. The former is a potential Awards Season player, while the latter is definitely not. Unfortunately, neither seems likely to challenge Gravity for top spot at the box office this weekend. Captain Phillips should come in a solid second place, while Machete Kills will try not to under-perform when compared to Runner Runner's opening from last weekend. Gravity could help 2013 top last year's box office, which was led by Taken 2 in its second weekend of release. The best new release was Argo, but it opened with less than $20 million and Captain Phillips should top that. However, last year had much better depth and might prove to be too much for 2013 to overcome.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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