While Spider-Man: No Way Home is still far from finished at the box office, the mega-hit has finally been overtaken on our theater count list. The film currently enjoys a worldwide total of over $1.7 billion. This week however ushers in two new wide releases in jackass forever and Moonfall, arriving in 3,604 and 3,446 locations respectively.
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A mysterious force knocks the Moon from its orbit around Earth and sends it hurtling on a collision course with life as we know it. With mere weeks before impact and the world on the brink of annihilation, NASA executive and former astronaut Jo Fowler is convinced she has the key to saving us all—but only one astronaut from her past, Brian Harper, and conspiracy theorist K.C. Houseman, believe her. These unlikely heroes will mount an impossible last-ditch mission into space, leaving behind everyone they love, only to find out that our Moon is not what we think it is.
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This is the last weekend in June and there are three wide releases hoping to challenge Finding Dory for top spot. I don’t think any of them will come close. Independence Day: Resurgence is the only new release with a shot at first place and it should come out on top on Friday. It better win on Friday, or the month will end on a soft note. The Shallows and Free State of Jones will be fighting for fourth place. The Shallows cost less than $20 million, so a fourth place finish wouldn’t be a bad start. On the other hand, Free State of Jones cost $65 million to make, so a fourth place finish would be a disaster. Also opening this week is The Neon Demon. It isn’t opening wide, but it is opening wide enough to compete for a slot in the top ten. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that earned less than $50 million combined. On the other hand, the top two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million. Can the top four this year out-earn the top four last year? I think they can. We might get an actual win in the year-over-year comparison.
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May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
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It was a slow week with only a handful of significant releases. However, that was good news for me, because it allowed me review the screener that arrived late. That screener was for The Martian, which was as good as I had hoped it was and it is the Pick of the Week. It is not the only new release that was in contention for that title. Both Adventure Time - Stakes! (DVD) and All Things Must Pass (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the running.
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While it isn't a quiet week for limited releases, nearly all of the buzz is directed towards two films, 99 Homes and Mississippi Grind. The former will likely be the biggest box office hit, but the later is a gambling movie, so it is the one I most want to see.
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PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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As expected, Monsters University remained the top draw on the weekend box office chart. The Heat performed a little better than expected, but White House Down struggled. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $190 million over the weekend. More importantly, this is 9% lower than the same weekend last year, meaning 2013 fell a little further behind 2012's pace. The difference is only $78 million or 1.5% at $5.18 billion to $5.26 billion, which is much better than it was earlier this year, so hopefully we can close that gap before too long.
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As expected, Monsters University will retain the box office crown this weekend with Disney projecting a thoroughly respectable $46.2 million and a decline of 44% from its opening -- good by today's standards, and particularly good for a sequel (albeit one whose target demographic wasn't born when the original came out). The real action this weekend, though, is among the other films in the top five. The Heat will open with a robust $40 million or so, per Fox, which compares favorably to its forebear Bridesmaids' opening of $26.2 million in 2011 (although a fairer comparison might be the $41.6 million debut of The Hangover 3 in May). Three male-oriented action movies fill out the next three spots on the chart, and the competition was too much for White House Down.
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The final weekend of June has two wide releases that should be in a very close battle at the box office. The Heat and White House Down could finish within $1 million of each other over the weekend. Unfortunately, neither one really has a shot at first place. It looks like Monsters University will have no trouble repeating as champion at the box office. Comparisons to last year are a little complicated. The new releases last year were stronger than the new releases this year; however, this year's holdovers are better. So will 2013 win in the year-over-year comparison? Not sure, but it could be really close.
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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