This graph shows Chadwick Boseman’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
When The Batman opened with $134 million over the weekend of March 4 it was cause not just for celebration among movie fans, but also for a reevaluation of our prediction model. Our predictions have held up fairly well throughout the last 18 months, but there’s growing evidence that some films are performing almost as if the pandemic never happened while others are continuing to feel the effects of audience reluctance to return to movie theaters. For this month’s prediction update, I’ve introduced an adjustment for that effect, which boosts the predictions for some tentpole films and increases our overall market prediction to $7.1 billion for the year, up from last month’s predicted $6.6 billion.
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It is the start of the Labor Day long weekend and to celebrate, Tenet is getting the widest release since March and Mulan is becoming the biggest film to ever premiere on VOD. And perhaps most baffling of all, the Canucks are still not eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs. With all that’s happening, the limited releases are more of an afterthought this week. The Owners is the latest horror film to get a limited release this year and since horror is the only genre with a consistent record at the box office, it could do well.
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There are not a lot of major releases on this week’s list, but what we lack in quantity, we more than make up for in quality. In fact, there are five contenders for Pick of the Week and a couple of other smaller releases that might end up in my collection soon. It is going to be a rough week on my wallet. These include a couple of Oscar contenders, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Jojo Rabbit; a couple of animated releases, The Point! and Tex Avery: Screwball Classics: Volume 1; and a TV on DVD Megaset, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: The Complete Series. All five releases are worth picking up, but I’m going with Jojo Rabbit as this week’s Pick of the Week.
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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Like we did with The Force Awakens, we are going to do a spoiler-free, detail-free review for Avengers: Infinity War. In other words, we are going to rate all of the movies in the MCU to see where Infinity War and the rest fit into place.
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Black Panther was expected to be a hit; after all, it’s part of the MCU. However, almost no one was expecting it to become the biggest hit in the MCU. It is also considered the best film in the MCU by a lot of people. Am I one of them? If not, where does it fit?
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Well, March has ended and it was a very disappointing month. Black Panther made more than any of the new releases did. The only potential big hit that didn’t miss expectations was Ready Player One. Because of this, 2018 lost its lead over 2017 and is now over $100 million behind last year’s pace. April is usually a terrible month, because it is a dumping ground, especially late in the month. No studio wants to compete with the first monster hit of the Summer. This year, the first monster hit of the summer, Avengers: Infinity War, opens in April. It will make more during its opening weekend than any other April release will make in total. It might make more opening day than any other April release will make in total. The only film that has a real chance to earn more than $100 million is Rampage, a video game adaptation. Last April, The Fate of the Furious earned more than $1.2 billion worldwide, but “only” earned $225.76 million of that domestically. Infinity War should earn more than that opening weekend. The second biggest hit of last April was Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style, both of which earned $45.02 million. If 2018 doesn’t retake the lead by the end of the month, then 2018 is in trouble at the box office.
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2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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Long before he sat on the United States Supreme Court or claimed victory in Brown v. Board of Education, the landmark case that desegregated schools, Thurgood Marshall was a young rabble-rousing attorney for the NAACP. This is the true story of his greatest challenge in those early days—a fight he fought alongside attorney Sam Friedman, a young lawyer with no experience in criminal law: the case of black chauffeur Joseph Spell, accused by his white employer, Eleanor Strubing, of sexual assault and attempted murder.
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Captain America: Civil War is the 13th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. That’s 13 films in just 8 years. The film pulled in more than $1 billion worldwide, so the market isn’t tired of these movies. However, has the brisk pace resulted in a substandard film? Or is it yet another critical smash?
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July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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It's not a bad week on the home market with a couple first-run releases that are worth picking up. 42 earned great reviews, but the DVD and the Blu-ray Combo Pack don't have enough extras to lift to to the Pick of the Week contender. Evil Dead does have a lot better extras on the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack, but the reviews were only good and not great. This leaves Regular Show: Season 1 & Season 2 on DVD or Blu-ray as the Pick of the Week. If you like Adventure Time or Gravity Falls, then you will likely enjoy this show as well. One final note, Orphan Black: Season One on DVD or Blu-ray is absolutely worth picking up and is worthy of Puck of the Week, for best Canadian released.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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