October 1st, 2017
September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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August 17th, 2015
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Descendants is the latest Disney Channel Original Movie and the channel is on a roll with their previous such release, Teen Beach 2, doing well with critics and with viewers. We already know Descendants was a hit in the ratings (there's even a TV spin-off in the works). However, did it earn this success? Or is it a case of hype more than quality.
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April 26th, 2015
The Boy Next Door only cost $4 million to make and even if its P&A budget was just north of $20 million, it made enough worldwide to cover that. All it needs to do on the home market is cover any additional production and advertising costs to break even. However, it earned reviews that were just 11% positive. Is it really this bad? Or were the critics unfairly harsh on the movie?
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February 2nd, 2015
It is a slow week on the home market, and will remain a slow week until the winter blockbusters start coming out. According to Amazon.com, this week the biggest release is John Wick. Granted, the Blu-ray Combo Pack is Pick of the Week material, but the film only made $43 million at the box office, so it likely won't sell a lot on the home market. The other two contenders for Pick of the Week are The Overnighters on DVD or Blu-ray and Dear White People - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Are three are worth picking up. The Overnighters is arguably the best, but I love the Film Noir style in John Wick, so I'm awarding that one the Pick of the Week.
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January 1st, 2015
2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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July 20th, 2014
I previously reviewed Rio and thought it was... a movie. It is so middle of the road that I couldn't get passionate about the film, either positively or negatively. That said, it made a ton of money, especially internationally, so it should come as no surprise that Rio 2 was made. Does it improve upon its predecessor? Does it get worse? Or is it yet another movie that just exists?
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March 29th, 2013
It's kind of a mixed week when it comes to limited releases. There are quite a few of them, but not many that have good reviews and strong buzz. The best of these is Blancanieves, which I thought opened previously. There are some with good reviews and some with buzz, but not a lot that scream hit. The Place Beyond the Pines probably has the best chance at hitting major milestones.
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