Spider-Man: No Way Home arrives in theaters in a big way this weekend, landing in a stellar 4,336 locations. That count places it as the second-widest release of the year, behind No Time to Die’s 4,407 and in front of Ghostbusters: Afterlife’s 4,315. This latest Spider-Man feature again pairs director Jon Watts and Tom Holland (as Spider-Man) from 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home; a film that went on to score over $1 billion worldwide. Spider-Man: No Way Home carries a $200m budget, eclipsing its predecessor by $40m. Also making its theatrical debut this week is Nightmare Alley. The neo-noir psychological thriller directed by Guillermo del Toro is set to release in 2,145 locations. The film, which is based on the 1946 novel of the same name by William Lindsay Gresham contains a bevy of top Hollywood actors.
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As expected, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way at the box office; however, it did so in a much more explosive way. In fact, its opening was in the top five for February releases. The other two new releases, Jupiter Ascending and Seventh Son, did as well as expected, more or less, but that's not really a good thing. The overall weekend box office was $152 million, which was 51% more than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2015 actually came out ahead, albeit by 0.3% margin. This is less than ticket price inflation, so fewer tickets were sold, but I don't really care. Considering I thought 2015 would lose by close to $20 million, I will take any victory and celebrate it. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled ahead of 2014 by nearly $100 million at $1.17 billion to $1.08 billion. Again, it is too soon to judge how well 2015 will do, but being ahead by 8.8% is still worth noting.
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We should have a new film to top the chart, finally, as The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water looks to take top spot, although if the more pessimistic analysts are correct, American Sniper could be close behind. Jupiter Ascending is looking for a $20 million opening, so if it can surprise analysts just a little it will compete for second place. Meanwhile, Seventh Son should be happy with a spot in the top five. It will get there, but mainly due to the lack of depth at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The LEGO Movie, which earned nearly $70 million. There's a chance the top three films won't earn that much this year. Even if all three wide releases top expectations, 2015 will still have trouble matching last year's box office.
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It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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A terrible weekend for new releases will leave Argo the weekend winner by default, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. The biggest disappointment of the weekend is Cloud Atlas, a pricey ($102 million, according to reports) sci-fi epic from Lana and Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer, that will open with $9.4 million or so, and won't be helped by a C+ CinemaScore. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D confirms that it won't be the new Halloween franchise by opening with a projected $8m, but that looks positively healthy compared to the openings of Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks. With those films projected to open with $4.06 million and $2.2 million respectively, this pre-Halloween weekend looks like a bloodbath.
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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