This graph shows Kristen Stewart’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After crushing it at the box office last weekend, Top Gun: Maverick ascends even higher than its record breaking opening theater count, adding 16 additional theaters to its already vast location count this week, coming in this week in 4,751 theaters. Two other wide releases land in theaters this week in Watcher and David Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future with the former set to debut in 764 locations, while the latter in an estimated 900 theaters. This week is much more subdued regarding new releases as next week another monster franchise sequel will release by way of Jurassic World: Dominion, which is projected to arrive in about 4,500 locations.
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The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s 26th outing is opening this weekend very much in line with similar releases in the franchise. Eternals will land with $71 million domestically, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning estimate. That’s about $4 million less than Shang-Chi earned in September, which was in turn about $5 million less than Black Widow’s $80-million opening in July. But it’s also very much in line with what Doctor Strange opened with before the pandemic. In short, the MCU looks to be doing fine.
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After two weeks sitting atop both the theater count chart and more importantly at the box office, Dune will take a backseat this week. The film opened domestically two weeks ago and has earned just north of $75 million. This week it drops down to 3,546 theaters, which is not enough to keep at the top of our list, but still widely available to see on the big screen. There’s no surprise that the honor of widest release this week goes to Walt Disney’s Eternals. The latest MCU feature, directed by Chloé Zhao and carrying a $200-million budget is set to launch in 4,090 locations across North America. The superhero blockbuster amassed $7.6 million from 14 international territories from rollouts beginning on Wednesday. Hitting theaters on Wednesday next week, the family-friendly film, Clifford the Big Red Dog is set to open in 3,400 locations. The animated-live action hybrid stars veteran actor John Cleese and Darby Camp and of course the amiable Clifford. Also making its way to the big screen this week is the biographical psychological drama Spencer. The movie from Neon Films which stars Kristen Stewart as Lady Diana will debut in a confirmed 996 locations.
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December, 1991: The Prince and Princess of Wales’ marriage has long since grown cold. Though rumours of affairs and a divorce abound, peace is ordained for the Christmas festivities at Sandringham Estate. There’s eating and drinking, shooting and hunting. Diana knows the game. This year, things will be a whole lot different.
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There are several interesting new releases on the streaming platforms this week. The biggest of these is Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, which debuted on Disney+ on Friday. The latest stand-up comic special by Patton Oswalt, I Love Everything, hits Netflix on Tuesday, and I bet it will be great. There are also two TV shows worth checking out, The Great on Hulu and She-Ra and the Princesses of Power on Netflix.
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It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there.
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Seberg is a political thriller inspired by real events about the French New Wave darling and Breathless star Jean Seberg. The film focuses on Seberg in the late 1960s when she was targeted by Hoover’s FBI, because of her political and romantic involvement with civil rights activist Hakim Jamal.
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The Angels are working for the mysterious Charles Townsend, whose security and investigative agency has expanded internationally. With the world’s smartest, bravest, and most highly trained women all over the globe, there are now teams of Angels guided by multiple Bosleys taking on the toughest jobs everywhere.
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It is a rough week for limited releases, as Avengers: Endgame is scaring away all of the competition. The biggest release of the week is JT LeRoy, but its reviews strongly suggest it will do better on VOD than in theaters. There are some films on this week’s list that earned stellar reviews, like Okko’s Inn, Carmine Street Guitars, etc., but none of them have the buzz to be major hits.
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Every week, I have to decide which limited releases to talk about in the main list of this column. Usually I limit myself to those with double-digit reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Last week, there were so few limited releases to talk about, I included some that I wouldn’t normally include. This week, there are about 30 films coming out in limited release, so I have to be extra judicious and cut some films just to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, it feels like a case of quantity over quality. There are some movies that are getting excellent reviews, but a lot of movies that had strong pre-release buzz are disappointing critically. There are some I’m interested in, like I Think We’re Alone Now, but that’s more for the cast than the reviews. Mandy is one of the best films, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so I don’t expect it will do well at the box office. There are also several documentaries, with Science Fair being the one I want to see the most.
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There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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It is not a particularly busy week for limited releases, but there are a few that are earning good reviews and louder buzz. My Scientology Movie, Personal Shopper, and Raw all fit that description, but Personal Shopper probably has the best shot at box office success.
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It’s not a grand week for limited releases. Café Society is the only big release of the week and while its reviews and its pedigree suggest it should be a hit, it might be the only hit of the week.
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According to Fandango, Captain America: Civil War has had the best prerelease sales of any comic book film and the second best overall, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It should come as no surprise that no other studio was willing to take a chance and go head-to-head with Civil War. However, it won't be the only film earning tens of millions of dollars this weekend. The Jungle Book will finally relinquish top spot, but I would be shocked if it didn't earn at least $20 million over the weekend. None of the rest of the box office will earn a fraction of that. Due to a misalignment in the calendar, the biggest new release from this weekend last year was Hot Pursuit, while The Avengers: Age of Ultron topped the chart with $77.75 million. Civil War should make more than that opening day.
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Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million.
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The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly.
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The third installment of the Holiday Gift Guide focuses on smaller releases, movies that opened in limited release, foreign films, classics getting new releases, and a few Canadian films. This year the list looks different to the previous guides for a simple reason. While there were only eight releases on the TV on DVD installment of the holiday gift guide, the first pass had more than 30 films on this list. I tried trimming the list, but that resulted in me remembering more films I wanted to add to it. Even after getting rid of the ones that won't be released until after Christmas, like Bone Tomahawk, there are still way too many releases to deal with. So let's not delay anymore and get to the list, starting with the biggest release...
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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American Ultra was released in late August, which is a terrible time of the year to release a movie. Additionally, American Ultra is a Black Comedy, which is one of the hardest genres to pull off. It is very hard to balance the darker elements and the comedy and the tonal shifts that are not perfect will irritate critics. Even black comedies that do earn good reviews rarely connect with moviegoers, because it is a niche market. This film earned mixed reviews and bombed at the box office. Did it deserve better? Will it at least satisfy fans of the genre?
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Clouds of Sils Maria is a French co-production that earned a lot of praise in its native market. Not only was it nominated for the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but it earned six César Award nominations, including a win for Kristen Stewart for Best Supporting Actress. She became the first American actress to win a César. Unfortunately, despite this praise, the movie never caught on here in theaters earning just under $2 million in limited release. Granted, that's better than a lot of films manage, but still disappointing compared to the critical praise. Did it deserve better? Or was the film geared towards critics and won't appeal to the average moviegoer?
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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It is both a good and a bad week on the home market. The biggest new release is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. That's bad. However, there are also a trio of limited releases coming out this week that are easily contenders for Pick of the Week: Clouds of Sils Maria, Ex Machina, and It Follows. It is really a coin-toss between those three, but in the end, I went with Clouds of Sils Maria - Buy from Amazon: DVD.
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Welcome to the column formerly known as the DVD and Blu-ray release report! In response to the changing home market landscape, we have renamed it the Home Market Release Report, and will now be including Video-on-Demand releases. It was a bad week to try and change the format, as there were a ton of great releases contending for Pick of the Week. Most of these contenders are TV on DVD releases, including Parks & Recreation: Season 7. There is also one limited release, Spring on Blu-ray, and one first-run releases, The SpongeBob Movie: A Sponge Out of Water on 3D Combo Pack. It was a close race, but I choose SpongeBob in the end.
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It is an excellent week for limited releases with two films earning stunning reviews and loud buzz: Clouds of Sils Maria and Ex Machina. I think the former has a better chance to expand significantly, but hopefully both will find audiences in theaters. There are also a number of other limited releases earning amazing reviews: About Elly, Black Souls, The Sisterhood of Night, etc. In fact, there are too many to think all of them will thrive.
It's an excellent week for limited releases with several films earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. This includes a couple that are also earning really loud buzz. Of these, Birdman is probably going to win the weekend race on the Per Theater Chart, while Dear White People should also be a hit. Diplomacy, Housebound, The Tale of Princess Kaguya, and others also deserve to find audiences, but not all will do so for various reasons (wrong genre, opening in Video on Demand, etc.).
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On Tuesday we launched The Numbers Bankability Index, a new service to help assess the value that different people bring to the industry, from actors and actresses to directors, screenwriters, producers, and anyone else involved in the creative process of making a movie. In this article, I'll look more deeply into how the Index is compiled, and how we use the tools behind it to analyze questions about people in movies.
Twilight came out in 2008 to a mixture of high buzz and abject horror. There were a lot of people who were major fans of the book series by Stephenie Meyer, while others consider Stephenie Meyer the worst author of all time. That might be a bit harsh. The first movie opened with mixed reviews, but smashed through all expectations with nearly $200 million domestically. A year later, New Moon came out and despite earning just 27% positive reviews. That's awful any way you look at it, but even so, it earned nearly $300 million at the box office. Clearly this franchise is critic-proof and I'm under no delusion that any of my criticisms will stop anyone from buying this 10-disc Blu-ray box set. I'm so convinced that no one will change their minds over my opinion of the movie that I'm going to keep that portion of the review to a minimum and concentrate on the extras instead. After all, anyone interested in this box set has already made up their mind about the movie and just want to know if this box set has enough extras to be worth the price.
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There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list; however, there are three films that have already found some Awards Season success, plus a couple others that are earning great reviews. Of the Awards Season hopefuls, Zero Dark Thirty is poised to earn the best per theater average, but it likely won't be the only success story over the weekend.
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As The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 prepares to re-write the record book, it would be easy to overlook the rest of the top five. However, there are a few other films of note. Firstly, Lincoln, which is expanding this weekend and will nearly be at the truly wide level. Nearly everyone thinks this film will grab a spot in the top five. Also, despite a lot of people predicting Breaking Dawn will break records, a lot of people think Skyfall will hold up pretty well over the weekend. By comparison, last year, Breaking Dawn, Part 1 had an impressive opening, but it was the only thing about the weekend that was impressive, as Happy Feet 2 crashed and burned. There's a slim chance Breaking Dawn, Part 2 will open with more than the combined openings of those two films. Adding in Skyfall and 2012 should come out with a major win this week.
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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