Weekend predictions: Mario to beat five new rivals for box office glory
April 21, 2023
After no less than six new wide releases last weekend, five more films arrive in over 600 theaters this time around, but none will topple The Super Mario Bros. Movie as the top-earning film in North America. Evil Dead Rise will most likely come the closest, and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant should find a place in the top ten. The fortunes of Beau is Afraid, Chevalier, and Somewhere in Queens is harder to predict. One or two of them could hit the top ten, but it seems unlikely all three will manage the feat.
With so much to get through, let’s get right down to it, with the model’s pre-weekend prediction for Evil Dead Rise:
While the film is obviously part of the Evil Dead franchise, it’s been so long since the earlier outings that the model is relying on the performance of R-rated supernatural horror movies, plus some fairly recent franchise reboots or reimaginings.
Those pointed towards an opening a little over $10 million thanks to a very wide release in 3,402 theaters, about 10% more than The Pope’s Exorcist’s count last weekend.
The film’s $2.5 million in previews points to a better result than that…
The obvious comparison here is M3GAN, which started 2023 off with a bang when it opened with $30.4 million. Evil Dead is running a little behind that, and the model’s cautious approach means that it has settled on a predicted $20.6 million weekend for the latest installment in the supernatural horror franchise. That would be a very respectable debut, but not nearly enough to topple Super Mario Bros. from top spot on the chart.
The model’s pick for second-best opener is Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant, which lands in 2,611 movie houses this weekend…
Next up is Ari Aster’s Beau is Afraid, which had the best opening for a film in limited release of the year last weekend and expands into about 1,200 venues this time around…
As well as Aster’s previous films, Midsommar and Hereditary, the model uses other films that had massive openings in a handful of theaters and then expanded significantly. The performance of such films is fairly unpredictable, with several highly-regarded (and, indeed, Oscar-winning) films failing to top $2 million, even adjusted for the effects of the pandemic.
The model ends up with a predicted $3 million, but anywhere between $1 million and $5 million is on the cards.
Next up is the latest period drama from Searchlight Pictures…
The best thing about this release is that it’s happening in theaters—another sign that the studios are willing to put films with more niche appeal onto the big screen. I think the model may be a bit optimistic on its chances, but hitting the top ten is a possibility.
Finally, Roadside Attractions has Somewhere in Queens starting out in 602 theaters:
The specialty distributor has been a staunch supporter of the theatrical business through thick and thin over the past few years. Somewhere in Queens will probably fall short of $1 million this weekend, but could sneak a place on the top ten if a few of its many competitors struggle. It will probably suffer from the competition too (although it’ll be interesting to see how it does in the New York area).
Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 will look like.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie should easily come out on top this weekend, even if it falls more than 26% (which seems likely to me, although the model often proves me wrong). If it makes $68 million, it’ll end the weekend with $444 million domestically, making it the 26th-highest-grossing film domestically, with lots more gas in its tank.
While that remains the biggest news at the box office, of course, the fact that we’ve had ten wide releases in two weeks is also of note, and seeing many films earn over $1 million on debut is a sign that we’re getting back to a much more traditional theatrical market.
Oh, and did I mention that our market strength measure is up to 90%? That was my predicted high for the year, which I expected to see around mid-Summer. Getting there in mid-April is a great sign, although I think there’s a good chance it’ll dip a little given the probability that a few films will miss out on their potential due to the crowded market.
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Ritchie recently had a misfire with Operation Fortune, which only managed $3.1 million on opening weekend (the model adjusts that to the equivalent of $4.1 million in pre-pandemic times in the table above). Generally the director has posted openings in the $10 million to $20 million range over his career, which means around $11.5 million is a good bet this time around given the current strength of the market and the relatively modest theater count.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, M3GAN, The Pope’s Exorcist, Beau is Afraid, Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre, Evil Dead Rise, Somewhere in Queens, Chevalier, Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant, Evil Dead, Ari Aster