Weekend predictions: Magic Mike could still win weekend from 1,550 theaters
February 10, 2023
Magic Mike’s Last Dance launches in a modest 1,550 theaters this weekend—Warner Bros. have not announced a precise figure—but that might be enough for it to pull off a win at the box office. Several films are in with a shot though, including Avatar: The Way of Water, the re-release of Titanic, and maybe even 80 for Brady, which has been perched at the top of the daily chart since last Sunday.
For Magic Mike, the low theater count is a blow to its box office chances, at least according to our model.
The fact that the film is playing in 1,500 or so theaters means that it is within reach of most of its audience, but not playing in every multiplex in urban areas. Will that mean that the film can still earn more than half of what the model expects, even from less than half its expected theaters? That’s hard to tell. I wouldn’t be surprised if it earns over $10 million this weekend, especially because the model is underestimating the box office for Magic Mike XXL, which opened on a Wednesday and had $27.89 million in the bank by the end of its first weekend.
It’s also counter-programming against the Super Bowl on Sunday. Not to mention a good fit for folks celebrating Valentine’s Day early.
Set against all the that is the fact that the film hasn’t been heavily promoted, and is landing in a smaller number of theaters than one would expect. A $10 million weekend feels about right to me, but this one could surprise in either direction.
Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 will look like.
There are a couple of real wildcards this weekend. The re-release of Titanic could get a chunk of the crowd that won’t be watching the Super Bowl (and be helped by the proximity to Valentine’s Day too). Avatar made $10.5 million from 1,860 theaters on its re-release back in September, and that’s a realistic goal for Titanic. If it gets there it has a real chance of topping the chart.
If Magic Mike and Titanic fall slightly short of expectations, Avatar: The Way of Water could sneak in and win the weekend. The model’s prediction is probably slightly high (I think $8.5 million or so is more likely), but it definitely has a shot at winning this weekend.
The other, even wilder, card, is 80 for Brady. It will probably do better than the model is predicting thanks to its older demographic. But the Super Bowl will presumably drag it down a little on Sunday. Overall, I can imagine it falling by between 30% and 40% this weekend, which would land it somewhere around $8 million. If it does better than that, it could end the weekend on top of the chart.
Overall, this weekend looks like a toss up between four films right now to me.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Titanic, Avatar, Avatar: The Way of Water, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, 80 for Brady