Weekend predictions: the sky’s the limit for Top Gun: Maverick
May 27, 2022
It feels like the buzz around Top Gun: Maverick has been growing since mid-May, 1986, given the cruel delays in development, production, and release of the film. It finally arrives in theaters this weekend with hype at a perfectly-timed crescendo, and will top War of the Worlds to give Tom Cruise his best opening weekend ever. Given its $19.3 million in previews on Thursday, it has Pirates of Caribbean: At World’s End’s $114.7-million Memorial Day 3-Day Weekend record firmly in its sights. Our model thinks it could go much higher than that given how quickly it’s taken off.
Here are our model’s two predictions for Maverick, based on its fundamentals, and then on its preview performance.
It looks likely at this point that Maverick will be one of those movies that becomes untethered from everyday expectations for opening weekend, much like Spider-Man: No Way Home did back in December. That’s not to say it’ll earn $260 million, but that comparisons with previous Tom Cruise and Memorial Day weekend openings are no longer useful. It’s simply the film that almost everyone heading to theaters this weekend will be buying tickets for, and that will be drawing in an audience who haven’t been to theaters in a while.
Our tracking pointed to an opening around $90 million two weeks ago, when we last run our monthly model. That figure increased to $106.7 million when we got news of the film’s gigantic footprint in theaters—a record 4,735 movie houses will be showing the film in North America this weekend. Its preview numbers are through the roof compared to even that ambitious goal. Memorial Day openers usually earn around ten times their Thursday previews, although with significant variations. If Maverick manages that, it’ll push towards a $200-million opening. Its previews have been pushed higher than usual though, thanks to various special advance screenings, so the model’s $197 million previews projection is most likely on the high side.
Once everything is taken into account, the model predicts a three-day opening weekend of $174 million for Top Gun: Maverick, which would be easily the best Memorial Day weekend in history. But there’s a huge amount of uncertainty in that figure. The film has started off at an incredible rate, and is playing in enough theaters to break all sorts of records. But there’s a good chance that the biggest fans of the film have already turned out in force, and it’ll take both some repeat visits and a broadening of its appeal through the weekend if it’s going to top $150 million. My hunch is that it’ll end somewhere between $120 million and $150 million, but I wouldn’t be inclined to place a bet one way or another. Watch this space.
The Bob’s Burgers Movie couldn’t be more appropriate counter-programming for Top Gun: Maverick this weekend—it is, after all, a film about an under-appreciated genius who seem to always end up playing second fiddle. It won’t generate many headlines this weekend, but it looks as though it’s doing very well so far, with $1.5 million in previews pointing towards a weekend that could come close to $30 million, given animated films can earn more than 20 times their previews on opening weekend.
The model thinks the film is a bit front-loaded, and ends with a prediction for the weekend of $26 million, which would still be well ahead of expectations. There’s a lot of uncertainty over this one too, and anything over $20 million would still be remarkably good.
The fate of the Memorial Day market is really in the hands of the two new wide releases. There’s no question we’ll enjoy a weekend well ahead of Memorial Day, 2021, when A Quiet Place: Part II led at the box office on an $81.5-million weekend for all films. If Top Gun: Maverick maintains its blazing pace, we could see some all-time records broken.
-6-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Top Gun: Maverick, The Bob’s Burgers Movie, Tom Cruise