Weekend Predictions: John Wick Takes Aim at Top Spot
May 16, 2019
This weekend likely won’t be a particularly good one at the box office, when compared to last weekend and especially when compared to last year. There are three wide releases, but only John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is expected to make a significant impact at the box office. A Dog’s Journey could become a midlevel hit, while The Sun is Also A Star might not open in the top five. Fortunately, both Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame should provide some power at the box office. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Deadpool 2 debuted with just over $125 million. There’s almost no chance 2019 will match 2018 at the box office and the year’s mini-wining streak is about to come to an end.
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is the third installment in the franchise. The franchise saw amazing growth from the first film to the second and most assume this growth will continue. The film will certainly get a boost from its reviews, which are currently nearly 90% positive. Additionally, there’s no direct competition, as it is the only R-rated action film currently in wide release. There’s a real chance the film will earn more than $50 million during its opening weekend and even the low end has the movie pulling in north of $40 million. I think the higher end is more likely and I’m going with an opening weekend of $48 million.
Avengers: Endgame will likely fall to just under $30 million this weekend, let’s go with $29 million to be more precise. Its legs have been rather short, even for a massive blockbuster; however, it got off to such an explosive start that short legs won’t matter in the end. It will still get to $800 million domestically, likely by next weekend.
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu should have reasonable legs. Its reviews are not amazing, but it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore. Furthermore, while there is certainly a Fanboy element to the movie’s appeal, it is still a family film and that should help it at the box office as well. I do think it will drop by more than 50%, but not by a lot more. Look for $25 million over the weekend for a running tally of close to $100 million.
A Dog’s Journey is the follow-up to A Dog’s Purpose. That film wasn’t a major hit here, but it did earn $200 million worldwide. I suspect this film will be a little weaker domestically, but make up for it internationally. The film’s reviews have slipped below the overall positive level and currently sit at 54%, which isn’t going to help its box office chances, but are also not so bad that it will kill its chances. On the high end, the film could come close to the first film’s opening weekend, while on the low end it will struggle to earn $10 million. I’m going with $12 million.
The Hustle should round out the top five with just under $7 million. Comedies like this tend to have better legs than most films, but this film’s reviews will make it short-lived at the box office. In fact, it could slip out of the top five entirely, if The Sun is Also A Star tops expectations.
Speaking of The Sun is Also A Star, it will likely open in sixth place. The film is an adaptation of a Young Adult novel and while these movies were briefly big at the box office, market saturation killed that trend almost as fast as it began. Mixed reviews are not going to help the film’s box office numbers either and there’s a chance it will miss the Mendoza Line with under $4 million in just over 2,000 theaters. I’m not that pessimistic, but I also don’t think it will open in the top five earning just $6 million over the weekend.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Endgame, The Hustle, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, The Sun is Also a Star, A Dog’s Journey, John Wick