2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 19, 2019

The Favourite

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive with three films I can see winning.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. However, they are for both original, adapted, and combined writing categories, depending on the award in question. Previous awards and nominations are for theatrical and not TV programs, on the other hand. )

Best Original Screenplay

Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars and Two BAFTAs
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: It is very rare for foreign-language films to earn Oscar nominations outside of that one category, but Roma was tied for most nominations with 10. It likely won’t win many awards, but it could win here. It’s not the favorite, but it could win in a wave.

Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga for Green Book
Tomatometer Score: 79% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film did not earn award-worthy reviews, but it is the kind of film Awards Season voters tend to love and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it won, but it isn’t the favorite anymore.

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara for The Favourite
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film did not earn a WGA nomination, but it won the BAFTA award. Normally the WGAs are the better indicator, but the winner there, Eighth Grade, didn’t even earn an Oscar nomination. I think this film is the favorite to win here, but I really want it to win over its main competitor, so my judgment might be clouded as a result.

Adam McKay for Vice
Tomatometer Score: 66% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One BAFTA, and One WGA
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One BAFTA, and One WGA
Notes: Adam McKay recently won an Oscar for The Big Short, which is a much better movie, so I don’t think Oscar voters will give him a second Oscar so soon for a much weaker movie.

Paul Schrader for First Reformed
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Award
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe, One WGA, and Three Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: I think this is the longest of the long shots in this category. It’s reviews are amazing, but the film wasn’t seen by enough people to get the votes to win. In fact, it wasn’t even nominated in three of the four major awards we track.

Conclusion: I think The Favourite is the favorite here, but if Green Book wins, I would not be too surprised. I would be disappointed, but not surprised. Meanwhile, Roma could win as part of a wave.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Vice, Roma, First Reformed, The Favourite, Eighth Grade, Green Book, Alfonso Cuarón, Peter Farrelly, Adam McKay, Paul Schrader, Brian Currie, Nick Vallelonga, Tony McNamara, Deborah Davis