Christmas Predictions: Can Sherlock Solve the Case?
December 24, 2018
Tomorrow is Christmas Day, which is a surprisingly good day to release a movie, and two new films are hoping to take advantage of this. Holmes and Watson is by far the bigger of the two releases, but despite the comedic talent in the movie, its reviews are, well, practically non-existent. There’s only one review and it is negative. Not that long ago, I thought the film would still open with $10 million for the day, as Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly do have box office drawing power. However, the lack of reviews hurts and the buzz isn’t loud enough to compensate. I think $8 million is more likely.
Meanwhile, Vice is looking to win awards as much as it is looking for box office success. Unfortunately, while its reviews are good, they are not good enough to win awards. It could still do well at the box office, but it won’t match high end expectations that relied on the film being a serious Oscar contender. Look for just over $5 million on Christmas day, which isn’t a bad start. It isn’t uncommon for Christmas Day releases’ final domestic box office to be 10 times their opening day haul.
As for the holdovers, there’s not a lot to add from our original predictions. Firstly, Aquaman is going to dominate and it looks like its five-day total will be just under $100 million, close enough that with its previous paid previews, it will get over the century mark.
On the other hand, Mary Poppins Returns is struggling compared to its predictions. It should have the biggest bounce of the new releases, because it is a family film. However, will earn less over seven days than many people thought it would earn over the three-day weekend. Even a $10 million Christmas Day would leave it will under $50 million for the week. That said, it will still break even, so there’s no need to worry about that.
Bumblebee is matching the more restrained predictions and should add about $10 million over Monday and Tuesday. The competition is keeping its opening weekend numbers lower, but its reviews should give it the legs needed to clear $100 million domestically, which is how much it cost to make.
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse should have a larger than average boost from Christmas, but it still won’t match our $30 million five-day prediction. That said, $26 million over that span is still enough to get the film to $100 million with ease; it will just take a couple of days to get there.
Meanwhile, I suspect The Grinch will overtake The Mule on Christmas day to earn fifth place with just under $3 million.
Second Act is matching our predictions nearly perfectly. It should finish the five-day weekend with just under $10 million instead of just over $10 million, so there’s not much more that needs to be said.
Finally, Welcome to Marwen is bombing. It could earn more on Christmas day than any other day during its run, but that would still be less than $1 million.
- Aquaman Comparisons
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- Mary Poppins Returns Comparisons
- Bumblebee Comparisons
- Second Act Comparisons
- Welcome to Marwen Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, Vice, Welcome to Marwen, Second Act, The Mule, Will Ferrell, John C. Reilly