Weekend Estimates: Bohemian has a Bourgeoisie Debut with $50 million
November 4, 2018
Fox is projecting a $50 million opening for Bohemian Rhapsody over the weekend. When I see a studio estimate a number like that, I always assume they overestimated, and not just because it topped predictions, because a “$50 million opening weekend” sounds a lot better than a “$49 million opening weekend” and getting that one day of extra hype could help its box office chances. It would require a 2.71 internal multiplier to get there, which would be a little high for a film like this. Its reviews are good, but not great, while audience scores are better at 4.5 out of 5 from PostTrak and an A from CinemaScore.
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms is in a similar position, as Disney is projecting a $20 million opening weekend. It would need an even better internal multiplier. Granted, it is a family film and those tend to have much better legs, but its 34% positive reviews, B plus from CinemaScore, and 3 out of 5 from PostTrak all make this less likely, so I suspect its final box office will be lower. On the other hand, it is doing better internationally with an expected opening of $38.5 million in 45 markets, including a predicted $12.0 million opening in China and a $5.5 million debut in Italy.
Nobody’s Fool’s projections come within a rounding error of expectations with $14 million over the weekend. Its reviews won’t win over many new converts, but its target audience gave it an A minus from CinemaScore and a 4 out of 5 from PostTrak.
A Star is Born’s projections are much better than predictions at $11.1 million over the weekend, which would give it a running tally of $165.6 million after a month of release. The film has earned almost as much internationally, with a running tally of $128.3 million, including $13.9 million this weekend.
Halloween will round out the top five with $11.02 million over the weekend, which is enough to get it just passed $150 million domestically. Internationally, it is projected to earn $18.3 million, lifting its total to $79.2 million.
Boy Erased is the best limited release we have projections for, earning $220,000 in five theaters for an average of $44,000. If this holds, and its word-of-mouth is as good as its reviews are, then it could expand wide enough to see some measure of mainstream success.
- Bohemian Rhapsody Comparisons
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- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Comparisons
- Nobody’s Fool Comparison
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Halloween, A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Nobody’s Fool