The Kids are More Than Alright

July 28, 2003

This week was quite a shocker with only one movie acting as predicted. Overall, there were more positive surprises than negative ones with the top five all making more than $20 million at the box office. And this is reflected in the 5.7% growth from last week and the 4.2% growth from last year.

The end of the Spy Kids trilogy started off with a bang. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over beat every prediction I saw earning an impressive $33.4 million in its opening weekend. That's very nearly double what the last one earned, and significantly above the original. Reviewers were not so kind giving it just below 50%. Weaker reviews, the fact that it's a sequel and the 3-D gimmick could lead to smaller legs, but $100 million is still an attainable goal.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl dropped more than I expected, but it still earned an impressive $23.1 million this weekend. That's just a 32% drop, better than Finding Nemo during its third weekend. It's too early to say it could top Finding Nemo, but Bruce Almighty is in danger of losing third place.

Bad Boys II managed to recover after really weak mid-week numbers. It only dropped 53% to $22.1 million. (It's a sad indictment of the movies when a 53% drop can be seen as doing good.)

On Friday when I said somewhere in Paramount there is someone asking, 'Is it too late to get our money back on Tomb Raider?' I had no idea it would be this bad. For a movie that cost nearly $100 million grabbing only $21.8 million is a bomb, plain and simple. And the news isn't getting any better, abysmal reviews and the sequel effect will lead to weaker legs and $50 million could be out of reach.

The only movie to get positive reviews finished in fifth place. Seabiscuit did beat my prediction with $20.9 million, but with a total budget of over $100 million it's going to need very long legs to show a profit.

Finding Nemo is finally showing signs of weakness at the box office. It earned $4.4 million in its ninth week of release, which was significantly below my prediction. And because of that it just missed making the top ten. It did beat The Lion King to become the highest grossing animated movie of all time (Not counting The Lion King's Imax run.) It should beat The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring tonight and move into the top ten of all time.

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Filed under: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Bad Boys II, Seabiscuit, Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over, Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life