June 5th, 2019
It is a very busy week on the home market, but unfortunately, most of this is catalog titles coming out on Blu-ray or 4K for the first time. One of these franchises, Toy Story, is a contender for Pick of the Week, as is the The Andromeda Strain: Special Edition Blu-ray. In the end, I went with The Venture Bros.: Season Seven Blu-ray.
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May 21st, 2019
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It is a very strange week on the home market. There are two $100 million hits, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World and The Upside, a midlevel hit, Isn’t it Romantic, and then practically nothing. The week’s releases are more top-heavy than any other week I can remember. Fortunately, the biggest release of the week, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, is also one of the best wide releases of the year so far and it is easily the Pick of the Week. In fact, it would likely have won that title even if it was a busier than average week.
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March 17th, 2019
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Captain Marvel will remain in top spot on the weekend chart with an estimated $69.32 million, giving it a two-week total of $266.21 million. This is higher than predicted and a 55% decline bodes well for its future. It is already ahead of the lifetime domestic totals of eight previous installments in the MCU and it will quickly rise into the top ten. Internationally, the film added $119.7 million to its running tally, which now sits at $494.0 million, while its worldwide total rose to $760.2 million. Yesterday, I said the film could be in the top ten for the MCU. If these estimates hold, it will miss that mark by about $10 million. In fact, given its holds this weekend, it has a pathway to enter the top five. The film’s only, and last, new international opening was Japan. There the film’s estimated weekend opening was $5.6 million, which was the highest opening for a standalone film in the MCU. Meanwhile, outside of China, the film held on even better than it did domestically. China tends to be a very front-loaded market, but the film held on well enough there to get to $132.0 million after just two weeks, making it the fourth highest grossing film in the MCU already. It is even better in Indonesia where its two week total of $16.1 million is the fourth highest total of all-time. We will have more details on the international numbers later in the week.
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March 16th, 2019
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Captain Marvel held on a little better than expected to earn $19.05 million on Friday, which pushes it past the $200 million mark in just 8 days. This is 69% lower than its opening Friday, but is still a fantastic start to its sophomore weekend. In fact, it should top our prediction with $68 million over the full weekend for a two week total of nearly $265 million. Disney hasn’t released Friday’s international numbers, but it is widely expected to top $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. The film has already surpassed five previous installments in the MCU on the worldwide chart and did so in just eight days. By the end of the weekend, it could be in the top ten for the franchise.
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March 15th, 2019
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Captain Marvel will undoubetedly dominate the box office again this weekend with some thinking it will avoid a 50% drop-off. I think that is overly optimistic, but there are some good signs. This includes a lack of top-notch new releases. Wonder Park is the biggest new release, at least in terms of theater count, but it also has the worst reviews of the three wide releases. Five Feet Apart has better reviews, but they can best be described as mixed. Meanwhile, Captive State still has barely any reviews and its buzz is so quiet that it might not top the Mendoza Line. Finally, some sources have Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase opening wide, but that isn’t happening. That’s too bad, because if it were opening wide, it would have the best reviews of the weekend. This weekend last year, Black Panther completed its month at the top of the chart, while Tomb Raider was the best new releases. Those two films earned almost exactly $50 million combined, which Captain Marvel will top by itself, leading 2019 to the victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 12th, 2019
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That burst of hot air you feel is box office analysts and movie executives breathing a sigh of relief as 2019 finally has its first win in the year-over-year comparison. Captain Marvel beat expectations earning $153.43 million over the weekend. This is more than the entire box office earned last weekend, helping the box office grow 85% week-over-week to $209 million. The year-over-year growth wasn’t as explosive, but this was still 51% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, $480 million or 22% to be more precise at $1.75 billion to $2.23 billion. However, this gap is about 10% smaller than it was this time last week, so while 2019 has a long, long way to go to catch up to 2018, it at least looks like it is possible instead of just wishful thinking.
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March 10th, 2019
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Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore.
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March 9th, 2019
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It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up.
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March 7th, 2019
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This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself.
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March 7th, 2019
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It was a really busy week on the Theater Average Chart with a ton of films to talk about, including six films in the $10,000 club. This list was led by Climax with an average of $23,885 in five theaters. Transit was next with an average of $15,966 in two theaters. Giant Little Ones and Apollo 11 had nearly identical averages of $13,500 and $13,392 respectively, but were playing in vastly different number of theaters at 1 and 120 respectively. Furie was a surprise entry in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,151 in 14 theaters. There was only one wide release in the $10,000 club, as Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral earned an average of $11,082.
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March 4th, 2019
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2019 has hit its low point, I hope. While Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened faster than anticipated, Greta couldn’t pull its weight and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World slipped faster than expected. The overall box office fell 9.4% from last weekend to $113 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, this is actually better than average for the year so far, as 2019 is now 26% or $540 million behind 2018’s pace at $1.51 billion to $2.04 billion. Fortunately, Captain Marvel should help things turn around when the film debuts in a few days.
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March 3rd, 2019
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According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then.
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March 2nd, 2019
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Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a faster than expected start on Friday earning $9.2 million. This might be enough to keep it in first place over the full weekend. It depends on its legs. Its reviews are only 29% positive, which normally would be a disaster, but the Madea franchise has been critic-proof for its entire history, so this really shouldn’t have an effect and opening with $26 million or more is likely.
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March 1st, 2019
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Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a great start by earning $1.1 million during previews on Thursday. This is the biggest previews result for a Tyler Perry film, topping the $1 million Acrimony earned last year. Madea tends to attract older women who are the demographic least likely to rush out for previews, so this start is more impressive than its raw number would suggest. The early reviews are mixed, which is better than expected, but there are only four reviews on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment, so that could change rapidly.
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March 1st, 2019
2019 has been terrible so far and by the end of February, will be about half a billion dollars behind 2018’s pace. March should be the first step in 2019’s attempt to recover from this hole it has dug for itself. Captain Marvel will be the biggest film of the year so far and tracking has it opening with more than $100 million during the second weekend of March. While that film is undoubtedly going to become the biggest hit of the month, it isn’t the only potential hit opening in March, as both Us and Dumbo are expected to earn $100 million domestically; Dumbo might even top $200 million domestically. As for last March, there were only two films that hit $100 million, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One, and neither of them came close to $200 million. There’s a slim chance this March will be better than last year, even if we ignore Captain Marvel. We could cut the deficit in half by the end of the month, if everything goes well. Then again, if everything went well during the first two months of the year, we wouldn’t be in such a deep hole at this point.
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February 28th, 2019
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2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks.
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February 19th, 2019
Comedy starring Tyler Perry opens March 1 ... Full Movie Details.
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